Improved AHP-TOPSIS Model For The Comprehensive Risk Evaluation Of Oil And Gas Pipelines

With the rapid development of pipelines,the safety of pipelines is becoming increasingly important.The safety of oil and gas pipelines is affected by many risk factors.One method must be adopted to enhance the objectivity and accuracy of risk evaluation result.The risk evaluation of oil and gas pipelines based on multiple risk factors can provide decision support for pipeline enterprises to comprehensively grasp the safety status of pipelines,which is important for preventing oil and gas pipeline accidents.According to the characteristics of oil and gas pipelines in China,this paper studies the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)of multi-attribute decision-making theory and analytic hierarchy process(AHP).A comprehensive risk evaluation model of oil and gas pipelines based on improved AHP–TOPSIS is established.This paper mainly forms the following research results:(1)Based on the barrier model and fault tree analysis(FTA),a risk factor system for oil and gas pipelines is constructed.We established a barrier-based oil and gas pipeline failure model based on the classification of oil and gas pipeline failure causes.FTA is used to determine the risk factors in the barrier model,and analyze the impact of the barrier failure on the pipeline.The risk factor system of oil and gas pipelines is constructed based on the analysis results of the barrier model and FTA,which refined the classification criteria of pipeline risk factors.(2)The index weight of oil and gas pipeline risk evaluation is computed by applying the improved AHP based on the five-scale method.In this paper,a five-scale method is proposed to construct the comparison matrix.The five-scale method has a more reasonable thinking logic and a simple form,which makes it easier for experts to compare the relative importance of the two factors.The statistical analysis of the oil and gas pipeline accidents publicly reported in 2003-2016 verified the rationality of weight calculation.(3)A comprehensive risk evaluation model of oil and gas pipelines based on improved AHP–TOPSIS is established.A multiattribute decision-making TOPSIS theory is studied.The method for determining positive/negative ideal solutions and the normalized equation of benefit/cost indexes is improved to render TOPSIS applicable for the comprehensive risk evaluation of pipelines.The closeness coefficient of oil and gas pipelines is calculated by applying the improved TOPSIS.The weight and the closeness coefficient are combined to determine the risk level of pipelines.Empirical research using a long-distance pipeline as an example is conducted,and adjustment factor method is adopted to verify the model.Results show that the risk evaluation model of oil and gas pipelines based on the improved AHP–TOPSIS is valuable and feasible.(4)The oil and gas pipeline risk assessment software based on the improved AHP–TOPSIS model was designed.Adopting the improved AHP–TOPSIS evaluation model,C# is used as the development language to design the software which can realize the analysis and evaluation of oil and gas pipelines risk factors.