Analaysis Of Spatial Effects And Driving Factors Of Carbon Emissions From China’s Construction Industry

The accumulation of greenhouse gases,mainly carbon dioxide,has caused climate problems.Climate change destroys the harmonious relationship between humans and nature,affects human living environment,and threatens the basic elements of human survival.As a pillar industry in China,the construction industry has extensive characteristics of high energy consumption,high emission and low efficiency,and is an important field of energy saving and emission reduction.This paper builds a carbon emission accounting model for the construction industry,and calculates and analyzes the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of the construction industry in China’s provinces from 2004 to 2017.Select the distance spatial weight matrix to conduct spatial correlation tests on the carbon emissions of the construction industry.The global autocorrelation test proves that there is a significant spatial positive correlation in the carbon emissions of the construction industry.In the local autocorrelation test,most provinces and cities are located in the first and third quadrants of the Moran scatterplot,verifying that there is a spatial effect of high-value aggregation or low-value aggregation of carbon emissions from the construction industry.Based on the extended STIRPAT model,this paper builds a carbon emission model for the construction industry that includes driving factors such as urbanization rate,GDP per capita,energy intensity,building development scale,and construction intensity.This paper analyzes the spatial dependence and spatial difference based on the panel data of various provinces and cities in China.Using the dynamic spatial Dubin model in the empirical analysis of spatial dependence,the results show that GDP per capita,development scale of construction industry,and construction intensity are positive drivers of carbon emissions in the construction industry,while urbanization rate and energy intensity are negative factors for suppressing carbon emissions.Variables such as the urbanization rate,GDP per capita,and development scale of the construction industry have a significant spatial spillover effect.Specifically,the urbanization rate of neighboring provinces has a significant negative impact on the carbon emissions of construction in specific provinces.The GDP per capita and building development scale of neighboring provinces has a significant positive impact on the carbon emissions of construction in specific provinces.The study also found that the increase in carbon emissions of the construction industry in the current period will promote the carbon emissions of the construction industry in the future,and the increase in the carbon emissions of the neighboring provinces will promote the carbon emissions of the local construction industry,reflecting the time lag and spatial agglomeration of the carbon emissions of the construction industry..Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model was used to analyze the spatial differences of the four building climate regions.The results show that the impact of various driving factors on the carbon emissions of the construction industry has both overall differences in different climate zones and similar values in the same climate zone.The study found that the carbon reduction effect of the construction industry due to the promotion of urbanization continued to weaken as the latitude of the climate region moved southward,which verified that the impact of urbanization rate on the carbon emissions of the construction industry manifested as "promoting first and then suppressing" in the space-time Characteristics.The indicators of economic development,construction scale and construction speed are the leading factors for the increase in carbon emissions from the construction industry in each province.Although energy intensity shows a small carbon reduction impact in many provinces,the improvement and breakthrough of energy saving and emission reduction technologies,the development and application of new energy and renewable energy are still indispensable links in the green development of the construction industry.