Large Passenger Aircraft Fire Risk Assessment

Large passenger aircraft is a highly integrated complex system.Establishing a feasible fire risk assessment method for large passenger aircraft can ensure the safe operation of the system in the whole life cycle in order to enter the market through airworthiness certification.Frist,the paper introduces the system engineering of large passenger aircraft,which selects 35 typical large and medium-size transport aircraft fire accidents from the existing statistical data.Then summarizes and analyzes the causes and characteristics of large passenger aircraft fire accidents,and establishes large passenger aircraft fire fault tree analysis.Secondly,based on the combustion theory,this paper analyzes the combustibles,combustibles and ignition sources on passenger aircraft along with the influence of aircraft fire prevention system,personnel factors,management factors,emergency equipment and other factors on fire risk to establish a fire risk assessment index system for large passenger aircraft.On this basis,this article adopts the AHP method and entropy method to calculate the index weight at all levels.Given the large aircraft fire risk assessment subject with strong randomness and fuzziness and the cloud model can deal with complex system,the uncertainty existed in the risk assessment can be built directly from qualitative mapping between language concept and quantitative data.Therefore,this paper proposes a model based on AHP and entropy kwon large aircraft fire risk assessment method.Finally,take A330-300 large passenger aircraft as an example to verify the feasibility of the method.First,use AHP and entropy weight method to determine the combination of large aircraft fire risk evaluation index weight.Then,combined with China's transportation aircraft airworthiness standards CCAR-25-R4 terms and conditions of the request,establish large aircraft fire risk evaluation index assessment score for all levels of indicators.Then convert the qualitative information to quantitative data through the cloud model and to visualize the result through Matlab.The resulted calculation shows the aircraft is in a lower level of risk of fire accident.