Simulation Of Discharge Rights Allocation Policy Based On Water Environmental Carrying Capacity

With the rapid development of social economy,the increase of population and the acceleration of urban industry and new town construction,the consequent industrial point source,residents of point source and agricultural non-point source pollutants increased,increasing water environment pollution,eutrophication of lakes,problems increasing,environmental pollution has become increasingly serious.In order to solve the current situation of environmental water pollution and realize the coordinated development of economy and ecology,the total volume control of pollutants based on the distribution and trading of pollutant discharge rights has become a hot issue of water environment management in the world.And traditional emission does not take into account the bearing capacity of water environment constraints,therefore,this paper based on the ecology theory,the theory and system science theory,the bearing capacity in "red lines,water ecological protection cap in the utilization of water resources and water environment quality of the bottom line and negative environment access list" as the basis,constructs the water environment,population,economy,subjective regulation and four subsystems based on the bearing capacity of water environment pollution rights distribution system,the system dynamics method is applied to build the corresponding dynamic feedback model.Taking Z county as an example,from 2012 to 2030 as the system simulation interval,the research results show that some pollutants such as TN in Z county exceed the standard,which requires certain policy intervention.Based on the three analytical directions of "pollution control,pollution control and capacity expansion",27 policy intervention points were proposed,and a comprehensive plan for coordinated development of green production and ecological civilization construction based on the allocation of pollution rights was designed.Scheme shows the Z county textile industry can achieve the output value increased by 20.07%,electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 12.01%,break through the Z county based on the water environment bearing capacity bottleneck of economic development,promote the economic development of the ceiling,in promoting economic development of the water and improving the ecological environment at the same time,to realize the harmonious development of the economy and ecology,complied with the development of "green water castle peak is the jinshan yinshan" concept.Since the sources of pollutants are industrial point sources,residential point sources and non-point sources such as agriculture,etc.,it is particularly important to establish control schemes for different pollution sources in order to solve the current situation of pollutants and achieve the goals of ecological improvement and economic growth.Therefore,this article further studied for producing three different types of pollution sources,industrial point source is given priority to,such as residents of point source is given priority to,the agricultural nonpoint source of three different typical area,build the integration of three different water environment,population,economy,head of control and four subsystems based on the bearing capacity of water environment pollution rights allocation system dynamics model,the concept of emission distribution system control scheme and design diagram,contains nine policy regulation scheme;Secondly,three regions with different pollution sources as the main pollution sources were simulated.The results of the regulation were as follows:for the regions with residential point source as the main source,the priority of medium and long term plan implementation was:water ecological improvement,sewage treatment plant promotion,comprehensive treatment of agricultural planting,coastal zone improvement,and technical improvement of industrial enterprises.For the areas dominated by industrial point sources,the priority of the implementation of the medium and long term control plan is the designation of sewage treatment plant,the improvement of water ecology,the comprehensive improvement of agricultural planting and the improvement of coastal zone.For non-point source areas such as agriculture,the priority of medium and long term control plan implementation is sewage treatment plant bid,water ecological improvement,coastal zone improvement,ecological landscape improvement and comprehensive agricultural cultivation.The results show that according to the different characteristics of the region,the priority of adopting the program is different,through the adoption of the appropriate program to achieve the water environment standards,water environment quality improvement,water environment carrying capacity and regional high-quality development goals,to achieve comprehensive governance capacity modernization.At present,most of the domestic and foreign researches on pollutant discharge rights focus on qualitative research and empirical research.Based on the water environment carrying capacity,this paper studies the ecological and economic effects of pollutant discharge rights allocation under the constraint of water environment carrying capacity by using system dynamics.The research content is of the international frontier,which enriches the research on the combination of water environment carrying capacity and sewage rights.In addition,this paper finds out the policy intervention points to realize the coordinated development of economy and ecology,and puts forward different plans for the regions with different types of pollution sources.The relevant research results can provide theoretical basis and decision-making reference for the implementation of regional water pollution control strategies.