Research On The Difference Of International Oil Price Fluctuation On Macro-economy In China And The United States

The issue of energy security is closely related to the economic development of various countries.As the blood of modern industry,oil plays a more important role.Since the financial crisis in 2008,WTI oil price fluctuates frequently,which brings bigger uncertainty to the economies.As the two most important countries in the world,China and the United States have different degrees of oil dependence on foreign markets and different influences of international oil price fluctuations.America's dependence on foreign oil is 15%.However,our country's dependence on foreign oil is 69.8%,the oil security problem is prominent.Based on the above background,it is necessary to analyze the differences of the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the macro-economy of China and the US from the perspective of oil external dependence.Firstly,this paper analysis the characteristics of international crude oil price fluctuation and the change of Sino-US the external dependence of oil.On this basis,this paper analysis the relationship between international oil price fluctuation and Sino-US macro-economy.Secondly,through the effectiveness of monetary policy,the price level determination mechanism,the source of the impact of oil price fluctuations and the openness of crude oil market,this paper analysis the transmission differences of the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the macro-economy between China and the United States.Besides,based on the quarterly data from 1994to 2018,this paper conducts an empirical study on the relationship between the fluctuation of WTI oil price and macro-economic variables in China and the US.The empirical results show that the difference of oil dependence on external sources leads to the difference of the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the macro-economy of China and the United States.First,under China's low oil external dependence,from 1994 to 2006,the impact of international oil price fluctuations on China's macro-economy was smaller than the US,and the transmission speed of oil price fluctuations on China's macro-economy lagged behind the US.Second,under China's low oil external dependence,from 2007 to 2018,the international oil price fluctuation has a greater impact on China's macro-economy than on the US macro-economy.Third,from 1994 to 2018,the impact of international oil price fluctuations on China's macro economy was slightly greater than the US.Finally,the author put forward by strengthening the exploitation and use of energy technology innovation ability,promoting the market-oriented reform of domestic crude oil price mechanism,improving the domestic crude oil futures trading system,strengthening energy supply-side structural reform and deepening with the oil and gas cooperation of countries along the "one belt one road" to protect our country's energy security.