Analysis On Coal Reduction Potential And Health Impact Of High Energy-Consuming Industries In Henan Province

In recent years,with the rapid development of Henan's industry and economy,the problem of air pollution,especially particulate matters pollution,has become increasingly serious,and attracting more and more attention.Existing studies have shown that coal consumption of the steel,cement,thermal power and other high energy-consuming industries is the important source of air pollution.Henan is a major industrial province,and the high energy-consuming industries dominate its economic development.In order to reduce the emission of air pollutants,and improve the quality of atmospheric environment,national and provincial governments have formulated a series of policies aimed at energy conservation and emission reduction in high energy-consuming industries.For the purpose of ensure that Henan can achieve the goals of the emission reduction policies as scheduled,it is necessary to analyze coal reduction potential of its high energy-consuming industries,and assess the population health benefits which are caused by air pollutants reduction.In this study,Henan's six high energy-consuming industries including coke,synthetic ammonia,cement,steel,aluminium oxide and thermal power were taken as the research object.Based on literature review and consideration of Henan's high energy-consuming industries development status and related policies,three scenarios including the baseline scenario,the general control scenario and the stringent control scenario were set.Then the coal reduction potentials and the emission reductions of major air pollutants of six high energy-consuming industries in 2020 under each scenario were analyzed.In addition,CMAQ model was used to simulate and predict Henan's annual PM_2.5concentration in 2020 under three scenarios,and the population health benefits caused by the decline of PM_2.5concentration under each scenario were estimated.The study results show that,in 2020,the reduction amounts of coal in Henan's six high energy-consuming industries including coke,synthetic ammonia,cement,steel,aluminium oxide,thermal power will be 258.9,494.4,915.4,190.0,387.8 and5501.6 thousand tons,respectively,totaling 7748.1 thousand tons,under the baseline scenario;711.3,1263.8,2204.2,1204.3,494.3 and 10628.8 thousand tons,respectively,totaling 16506.7 thousand tons,under the general control scenario;1157.9,2126.3,3814.6,1463.8,1220.6 and 20569.2 thousand tons,respectively,totaling 30352.3 thousand tons,under the stringent control scenario.SO₂,NO_X,CO,PM_2.5,PM₁₀and VOCs of the six high energy-consuming industries will be reduced by 8996.76,22677.91,41799.29,4365.63,6318.71 and 1041.56 tons,respectively,under the baseline scenario;22912.25,50366.27,114467.27,10260.73,15756.08 and2888.78 tons,respectively,under the general control scenario;40316.65,92702.38,196993.69,18528.03,27702.23 and 4952.77 tons,respectively,under the stringent control scenario.Among these high energy-consuming industries,steel and alumina industries have the greatest potential for coal reduction and emission reduction,while the cement and thermal power industries have the highest contributions of emission reductions.In views of population health impact,in 2020,the reduction of PM_2.5concentration under the baseline scenario,the general control scenario and the stringent control scenario will reduce the total number of deaths from respiratory diseases,cardiovascular diseases and non-accidental deaths by 109346,118496 and127348 comparing with 2016,while the economic losses will be reduced by 2619.45,2670.89 and 2720.66 hundred million yuan.Obviously,it will bring huge population health benefits when coal consumption of Henan's six high energy-consuming industries is reduced.