Study On Risk Management Of Technology Innovation Project Of Chlorpyrifos

China is a huge agricultural country with very long history and is also one of the biggest in manufacture and use of pesticides.Organic synthetic pesticide is the major member of modern pesticide family,while the pesticide chemical industry is an important branch of the industry of fine chemicals.Because of its own specificity and particularity,the pesticide manufacture industry requires higher production process safety when compared with other industries.Given the fact that in the pesticide chemical industry the R&D achievement transformation involves a great deal of creative and innovative processes and novel equipments,especially dangerous chemical process might be used,the uncertainty would be greatly increased.Accordingly,effective risk management has become an urgent task for the projects of technical innovation and upgrading.In this thesis,literature survey,qualitative and quantitative combination as well as analytic hierarchy process were employed to study a technical innovation project for chlorpyrifos production in company T,combining with the conceptual theory and technology of project risk management.On the basis of comprehensive literature reviewing the risk management of R&D projects and other related projects around the world and summarizing the state of the art,the reasonable research strategy and the research roadmap were firstly determined.Secondly,the risk factors of the project were identified by use of the step-wise combination methodology in combination of the actual situation and basic facts of the chlorpyrifos TC project in company T,the practical experience from literature document and engineering practice as well as the expertise.Seven kinds of risks were figured out according to the induction and review formula.A total of 55 risk factors were preliminarily recognized by the fault tree analysis.And finally a risk factor list was defined based on Delphi Method(also known as expert investigation method),which was composed of four categories of risk factors,totally 35 kinds of risk.Thirdly,by use of subjective scoring of experts,focused on the cognize and expertise of the experts,the probability of the risk happening and the consequence severity were assessed.On this basis,an assessment indictor system was built up.The weight analysis was done and the hierarchy was sorted according to AHP method.The comprehensive evaluation index of the project risk factors was calculated,the comprehensive assessment and the level of risk were ranked.It turns out that the risk level of the project was medium.It was found that the major risks depended on the feasibility in the technical process and the equipments,the reliability in production process and the equipments,the quality of product after technical innovation,the systematicness of the process technique,the qualification of the operation workers,etc.All these detailed analyses lay the foundation for risk response.According to the results of risk evaluation and actual practices of company T,the risk management program for the technical innovation project was laid out.The principle and the system framework of project risk management was presented,and the measurement in response to the risk of chlorpyrifos TC project in company T was proposed based on the choice of risk response strategy.The people oriented supervision mode of risk,all member participation network + collective decision was founded.The safeguard measure to enact the project risk management was formulated so as to effectively control the project risks and smoothly complete the technical innovation project and ensure the steady running of the plant.This thesis proposed a novel method for project risk identification by employing combinative approach,and a person oriented risk monitoring and supervision mode—all member participation and collective decision,which provides some attempts for the risk management of the related technical innovation projects in the small and medium enterprises.