Carbon Emission Effect Of China's Manufacturing Industry OFDI

In recent years,based on the trend of economic globalization,the scale of outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)has shown a rapid growth trend under the promotion of China's "Going-out" development strategy and related measures.With the acceleration of industrialization,the carbon emissions have increased.According to the hypothesis of "pollution paradise" and "pollution shelter",developed countries tend to transfer highly polluting industries or enterprises to developing countries.Although China is not a developed country,the scale of China's OFDI ranks second in the world for three consecutive years.Some voices have questioned whether China's OFDI has brought environmental problems to the host country.So,does China's rapidly increasing OFDI conform to the "pollution shelter" hypothesis,shifting energy-intensive industries,thereby reducing its carbon emissions? In what ways does OFDI indirectly affect home country carbon emissions? In order to answer the above questions,this paper chooses panel data of China's manufacturing industry to analyze the carbon emission effect of manufacturing OFDI on home country.Firstly,on the theoretical level,this paper analyses the impact path of OFDI on carbon emissions,explores the mechanism of carbon emission reduction effect in manufacturing industry from three aspects: scale effect,structure effect and reverse technology spillover effect,and finally establishes a panel simultaneous equation model.Secondly,an empirical study is conducted using the established panel simultaneous equation model and the data of OFDI and carbon emissions in China's manufacturing industry from 2005 to 2016.Finally,the carbon emission effect of OFDI in China's manufacturing industry is discussed,and the carbon emission reduction effect before and after the implementation of the "one belt and one way" strategy is compared and analyzed.On the basis of this,specific countermeasures for optimizing China's OFDI structure are put forward to reduce China's carbon emission level.Through analysis,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)China's manufacturing industry OFDI has a positive carbon emission effect,that is,domestic manufacturing sector carbon emissions increase with the expansion of manufacturing industry OFDI scale.Scale effect and structure effect are positive,while reverse technology spillover effect is negative.(2)China's manufacturing industry OFDI leads to an increase in carbon emissions by promoting the development of domestic manufacturing industry;China's manufacturing industry OFDI does aim to transfer high-energy consumption and high-pollution industries,and the investment in high-emission industries promotes the development of such industries in China,resulting in an increase in carbon emissions in manufacturing industry;The expansion of OFDI scale in China's manufacturing industry has enabled domestic manufacturing enterprises to absorb advanced cleaner production technology and pollution control technology from overseas,thus significantly reducing carbon emissions.(3)After the implementation of the strategy of "one belt and one road",the scale of China's manufacturing industry OFDI has expanded rapidly,which has promoted the development of the domestic manufacturing industry.The investment in Central Asia,South Asia and West Asia is mainly resource-oriented.Although it has not effectively transferred China's high-energy-consuming industries,it has promoted the development of such industries in China with the help of the resources advantages of these countries and regions.Investment in Central and Eastern European countries is mainly technology-oriented,which can improve domestic technology level and reduce domestic carbon emissions through reverse technology spillover effect.