Oil Depot Risk Assement Based On GSPA-IAHP

The oil depot is the energy storage base supplying petroleum and petroleum products for country.The oil depot system is complex with many risk factors.Once a fire or explosion occurs,it will cause serious harm to society,economy and environment.Therefore,the key to maintaining the normal operation of the oil depot system is analyzing the risk of induced oil depot fire,establishing a comprehensive and objective evaluation system,and taking corresponding preventive measures to ensure the safety of the oil depot system.A reasonable evaluation method is used to analyze the risks of the oil depot,which can improve the management level of the oil depot and ensure the safety of the oil depot system.Because the risk factors of oil depots are complex and uncertain,so a single evaluation method cannot comprehensively describe the risks of the oil depot system.By comparing the adaptation scope,advantages and disadvantages of various evaluation methods,the method of combining interval analytic hierarchy process and set pair analysis method is selected.And the GSPA-IAHP model is established to evaluate the risks of oil depot.Firstly,the interval analytic hierarchy process is used to analyze the risk factors of the oil depot fire from the aspects of raw materials and processes,equipment and facilities,management measures and fire source control,and a three-level hierarchical structure system is constructed to calculate the interval weight of each evaluation index.Secondly,the certainty and uncertainty of the weight of each evaluation index is taken as the research object by using the theory of connection degree in the principle of set pair analysis,and they are described and unified from the three aspects of the same degree,the difference degree and the opposite degree.Accurate comprehensive weights are calculated.Finally,According to the comprehensive weight of each evaluation index,the importance of each risk factor is ranked,and the risk level of the oil depot is determined.Taking a certain oil depot in Shanghai as an example,the GSPA-IAHP method is used to analyze and evaluate the oil depot risks.According to the importance degree of each risk factor,corresponding preventive measures are proposed.The evaluation methodhas applicability and effectiveness for the evaluation of oil depot fire risks,and provides a theoretical basis for the later safety management about oil depot.