Investigation And Prediction Of Characteristic Pollutants In Atmospheric Environment Of Weifang In Recent 10 Years

Air pollution has brought great negative effects on people's life and work.It is extremely urgent to solve the problem of air pollution.It is of great significance to study and forecast atmospheric pollutants for mastering atmospheric environmental conditions and proposing targeted air pollution prevention measures.According to the Ambient Air Quality Standard,combined with the Environmental Air Quality Assessment Methods?Trial?,environmental air quality of Weifang in recent 10 years,and the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of six kinds of pollutants:PM₁₀,PM_2.5,sulfur dioxide,nitrogendioxide,carbonmonoxide,ozone were studied and analyzed.?1?From 2008 to 2012,the number of days with excellent air quality and the rate of excellent air quality in Weifang fluctuated.Since the implementation of the new ambient air quality standard from 2013 to 2018,the number of days with excellent air quality and the rate of excellent air quality have increased year by year,and the air quality has been improving.Particulate matter and ozone appears the most common primary pollutants in the days when the air quality exceeds the standard.?2?PM₁₀0 and PM_2.5.5 were the major pollutants in the recent 10 years,and air quality has not reached the standard in the past 10 years.Both have a high rate of exceeding standard of daily mean,highest years reached 49.7%and 59.6%,respectively.However,the average annual concentration of both showed a steady downward trend.Take the year of implementation of the new standard in 2013 as the node,before 2013,the daily mean rate of reaching the standard of PM₁₀0 was unstable,and after 2013?inclusive?,the daily mean rate of reaching the standard of both showed an upward trend.The most serious pollution occured in January in winter for the pollution in heating period.The serious pollution of both occurred in urban areas,the south and west.?3?Sulfur dioxide prevention and control was remarkable,the average annual concentration of sulfur dioxide showed an obviously downward trend.Since 2015,the sulfur dioxide has reached the standard for four consecutive years.Take the year of implementation of the new standard 2013 as the node,before and after 2013,the daily mean rate of reaching the standard showed an upward trend.The most serious pollution occured in January in winter.The pollution was more serious during heating days that non-heating days.Take 2017 as the node,the pollution in urban and suburban showed much difference.Before 2017,urban pollution is more serious than that in suburban areas.After 2017,the pollution was the opposite.The south and west was heavily polluted by sulfur dioxide.?4?The average annual concentration of nitrogen dioxide showed an obviously downward trend,and the control was remarkable.Since 2016,the concentration of nitrogen dioxide has has reached the standard for three consecutive years.Take the year of implementation of the new standard 2013 as the node,before and after 2013,the daily mean rate of reaching the standard was unstable.The most serious pollution occured in January in winter.The pollution was more serious during heating days that non-heating days.Urban,the south and west was heavily polluted by nitrogen dioxide.?5?The average annual concentration of ozone presented a slowly downward trend,the pollution control was not remarkable.From 2014 to 2018,the 90th percentile of the daily maximum 8-hour sliding average exceeds the standard,and all years were substandard.The daily maximum 8-hour sliding average deviation rate showed an unstable rising trend.The most serious pollution occured in June of summer and non-heating period,in the west.?6?The average annual concentration of carbon monoxide presented a slowly rising trend.And the daily mean rate of reaching the standard was high.According to the Ambient Air Quality Standard,combined with the Environmental Air Quality Assessment Methods?Trial?,from 2014 to 2018,the 90th percentile of the 24-hour mean has reached the standard for five consecutive years.The most serious pollution occured in January of winter and heating period.In order to analyze the causes of Weifang air pollution,we selected typical cities for comparison and combined with the development condition of Weifang,and we found that unreasonable industrial energy,traffic structure,adverse meteorological conditions,special geographical location and secondary dust were all the influence factor for Weifang air quality.Drawing on the experience and practice of advanced regions,the paper come up with a series of measures to cope with the air pollution,such as adjusting and optimizing the structure,strengthening regional joint prevention and control,and improving the ability of prediction and air quality prediction.The air quality prediction model was explored and applied in the paper.The particulate matter was taken as an example,the ARIMA?p,d,q??p,d,q?_S product season model was established to forecast the main pollutant concentration of particulate matter.The results showed that the short-term forecasting result was reliable,model fitting was higher.In practical applications,we need to collect the latest monitoring data and provide the most accurate and reliable prediction results in a timely manner.