| As the industrial structure is irrational,extensive mode of economic growth there is no fundamental change by now,environmental pollution situation is deteriorating.Therefore strengthen total amount control of pollutants is a very urgent and important task in the current and future environmental prevention.Pollutant emissions forecast is an important component of total amount control of pollutants.Given the situation,Zhenhai District is taken as case.The total emissions of pollutants was forecasted and then the pollutants emission was projected in the Zhenhai District during the year 2006-2020 by taking scenario analysis method.And then we developed a scenario under optimize the distribution of programmes and environmental protection measures,so as to provide decision-makers alternative proposals and scientific basis.Firstly,the situation of socio-economic development and geographical features were evaluateed.In particular,we made a system study on environmental situation in Zhenhai District.The major environmental pollutants and source is identified According to Zhenhai District actual situation,the specific method of total amount control of pollutants is developed.Based on the ecological function zoning method, the study area is divided into a number of control units.In the control unit level,we set of several scenarios on pollutant emission.Finally,we optimized scenarios by discrete planning approach.Secondly,the economic and industrial output trend is projected by LEAP2008 model in Zhenhai District.Forecast for 2010 and 2020 the population was 234,622 and 260,068 people By 2020,industrial output is expected to reach 394.6 billion yuan which is growth of 306.7 percent over 2005.And on this basis,the industrial sources and life source of emissions scenarios are the projected.Life source of pollutants has an increase of 66.9 percent in emissions of COD which grown from 5118 t to 8543 t.On the contrary,the life source of NH3-N rose from 483.5 t to 607.52 t grew only 25.6 percent.The growth rate of COD is faster than the one of NH3-N.Industrial sources of pollutants emissions projections showed that:COD,SO2 and NH3-N pollutant emissions were three different variations of living trends.Emissions of COD has the M-type trend,the minimum 1608.95 t,the highest 3497.56 t.Emissions of SO2 show the trend of gradually decreasing throughout the forecast period.NH3-N emission is the smallest one among three pollutants.It increase after declining trend, the largest emissions in 2015,up to 93.59 t.Third,the various scenarios for the programme of the control unit have been optimized by the use of discrete planning method.After repeated set parameters, Economic benefits has been the best to meet At the same time,overall control objectives and requirements of the optimization scenarios is met.Under the scenarios: 2020 the total industrial output value will reach 405.18 billion yuan,up 317.6 percent growth in 2005.Industrial emissions by sources COD,NH3-N and SO2 is 3450 t, 73.48 t,13104.43 t respectively.Finally,a programme in total amount control of pollutants was developed,on the basis of the relevant Zhenhai District policies,regulations and optimization scenarios. Emission of SO2 reduce to the 17,890 t in 2010 from 2005's 60,270t.Emission of COD calls for a reduction of 15%,which reduce to 4,910 t in 2010,from 5,780 t in 2005.The cost-benefit analysis found that the programme can obtain better economic, social and ecological benefits. |
PDF Full Text Request