An Empirical Study On The Main Influencing Factors And Fluctuation Law Of International Crude Oil Price

With the development of China’s economy,the correlation between oil and people’s life is increasing.At the same time,China’s lack of oil and gas supply makes the domestic dependence on imported crude oil increase year by year.The impact of changes in international crude oil prices on domestic production and economic operations is increasingly significant.With the listing of domestic crude oil futures,the international crude oil price has received more and more attention.How to understand the international oil price,analyze the main factors affecting the international oil price change,and scientifically and reasonably judge the fluctuation law of international oil price has become a hot topic in recent years..Based on the analysis of global crude oil supply and demand pattern and crude oil futures spot market,this paper starts from two aspects of crude oil supply and demand factors and economic and financial factors,and finds 12 potential major influencing factors of WTI crude oil price,one of the world’s three major crude oil benchmark prices.Then using the method of multiple linear regression,the correlation between these 12 factors and WTI crude oil price is obtained.Principal component analysis method was used to reduce the dimension of 12 independent variables,and three principal component variables were obtained.At the same time,a multiple linear regression model was constructed.Based on the model and historical oil price data,the WTI crude oil price is predicted,and the oil price forecast chart is drawn.In addition,this paper analyzes the historical data of WTI crude oil price and introduces the GARCH model to find the operating law of crude oil price fluctuations,and concludes that the increase of oil price has more influence on the fluctuation of crude oil price than the decline of oil price.By studying the main influencing factors of international crude oil price volatility,we can find out its volatility law.On the one hand,it can provide price decision support for domestic industrial enterprises in purchasing crude chemicals in the crude oil and crude oil industry chain,helping them to predict oil prices and buy oil at a low price,thereby reducing production and operation costs.On the other hand,from a financial perspective,with the listing of domestic crude oil futures,studying the fluctuations of international crude oil prices can help investors understand the law of market volatility,make it profitable in crude oil futures trading,and better control the risks and losses caused by oil price fluctuations.