| The chemical and petroleum industries contributed a lot to the development of China’s economy,and they are fundamental industries and play a vital role in the economic development.However,the chemical production and storage facilities are dangerous,especially,the domino effect between the facilities after an accident often causes great damage to people,property and environment,so the domino effect between facilities should be studied to gain a thorough understanding how it occurs.This paper focuses on the calculation of probability of domino effect between facilities and measures to effectively lower the probability of the domino effect.At present,most researchers took only one expansion factor into consideration when study the domino effects of accident,and only a few researchers simply or quantitatively took three expansion factors into consideration,and their research is not thorough enough.Obviously,such calculation of probability of domino effect is inaccurate.In order to address the problems mentioned above,this paper takes the domino effect in the chemical storage tank area as an example.After identification of the domino effect and the analysis of the accident consequences in the storage area,the probability of the domino effect is then calculated and the countermeasures are studied.Firstly,based on ALOHA and the Probit model,the expansion probability of the domino effect caused by thermal radiation and shock wave over-pressure is calculated.Secondly,Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the probability of tanks being obstructed or destructed by the domino effect caused by explosive accident.Thirdly,a mathematical model which considers three expansion modes to calculate the domino effect expansion probability in the tank area is established;finally,which tank is most likely to be affected by the domino effect caused by accident and countermeasures can be determined.It is of great value to protect chemical storage tank farm from the domino effect. |
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