Research On Investment Risk Assessment And Situation Judgment Of Urban Water Environment Governance PPP Projects

PPP(Public-Private Partnership)is a new business model of public service supply,and its risks are ambiguity in a long-term with high complex environment.As PPP projects of water governance are commonweal projects,thus lack of incomes from the end users but depend on government's compensation,which reduces the social investments and increases risks.In order to establish an investment risk evaluation index system for water governance PPP projects,this research try to identify risks through the full project life cycle.Hence the risks in a contract are divided into four parts: investment risk in the preparation period,investment risk in the construction period,investment risk in the operation period and risk in the handover period.Furthermore,Pythagoras fuzzy AHP was adopted to calculate the index weight,and the fuzzy reasoning system based on Fine Kinney Method was used to construct the risk assessment model.The fuzzy reasoning system module in Matlab was used to define 125 rules corresponding to input variables and output results,and the centroid Method was used to calculate the RM of each indicator.The risk situation judgment model is constructed by using the method of multiple association number based on set pair analysis,and the risk situation of each risk assessment index is determined by combining the multiple association number and set pair potential.The first-order partial connection number,and the second order partial connection number of set pair potential analysis,clear the change trend of the risk,and through the "accelerated decline type","slow down","accelerated" and "slow rise","uniform decline type","uniform rise" 6 kinds of curve to describe the changing trend of the risk,make it more intuitive and clear.The result shown that:(1)there are 9 investment risk indicators in the preparation period of water governance PPP projects,and its change trend is "slow down",which is subordinate to higher risk indicators: organization coordinated risk,control risk,dyke pollution screening/approval delay risk;(2)there are 18 investment risk indicators during the project construction period,and it change trend is "accelerated decline",among which the indicators belonging to higher risk: government intervention risk,engineering change risk,organization and coordination risk,and water ecological restoration technology risk;(3)there are 15 investment risk indicators in the project operation period,and the risk change trend is "deceleration and rise",among which the indicators belonging to the higher risk include inflation risk,the risk of imperfect contract documents,and the risk of unsustainable governance effect;(4)there are four investment risk indicators in the project handover period,and the risk trend is "decelerating and rising",among which the high risk indicators are government credit risk and the risk of substandard transferred assets.The case verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the risk assessment model practically,which can provide reference for risk identification and evaluation of similar water environment governance PPP projects.