Research On Influencing Factors And Fluctuation Characteristics Of Carbon Emission Price

Climate change caused by excessive greenhouse gas emissions has become one of the major challenges that humans have faced in recent years.In order to reduce the excessive emissions of greenhouse gases,many countries have taken measures to promote the transformation of the extensive economic development model into a green and low-carbon economic development model.As one of the effective management measures to address climate change,carbon emissions trading has received much attention in recent years.Focusing on the influencing factors and fluctuation characteristics of carbon emission price,this paper first reviews the relevant theories of carbon emission trading and summarizes the related research.Then we reviews the development of domestic and foreign carbon emission trading markets.This section mainly introduces the development of the two international carbon trading markets of the EU ETS and the Chicago Climate Exchange.Then it introduces the establishment and development of China's carbon trading market.Since 2013,China has launched carbon trading pilots in several provinces and cities.However,China's carbon trading market still has a certain gap compared with some developed countries.At present,the relevant trading mechanism and legal system have not been perfected,the development of each pilot is uneven,and the unit price and transaction volume are very different.These problems have brought certain obstacles to the development of a unified national carbon trading platform.In this context,we conducts empirical research based on the carbon emission price data of China's Hubei Carbon Emissions Exchange.The Vector Auto-Regressive(VAR)-Vector Error Correction(VEC)model is used to study the dynamic relationship between energy price,macroeconomics,industrial level,air quality and carbon emissions trading price.It can be concluded that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the carbon emission price and the indicators of these influencing factors.When the carbon emission price is too high and deviates from the long-term equilibrium value,the carbon price will slowly decrease and tend to a long-term equilibrium value.Among these influencing factors,the macroeconomic and industrial levels have the greatest impact on the carbon emissions price.In addition,this paper also uses the GARCH family model to study the fluctuation characteristics of China's carbon emissions price.It is found that the return series of carbon emissions price hasthe characteristics of volatility clustering,peak thick tail and non-normal distribution.China's carbon price fluctuations have a positive leverage effect.Finally,this paper proposes some policy recommendations based on the above conclusions.