Futures Speculation And International Oil Price

As one of the most important commodities,oil is called "the blood of industry".It is an indispensable and important energy source for China's economic development,as well as the most important strategic resource,which is related to the national economy,people's livelihood and strategic security.With the continuous development of China's economy,the demand for crude oil is also increasing day by day.At the same time,because of the natural resource endowment,China's crude oil production is increasing.In 2018,China's annual average crude oil import volume reached 8.4 million barrels,becoming the world's largest importer of crude oil and the second largest consumer of crude oil.Although crude oil is one of the most consumed countries,China has been lacking the voice in the pricing of crude oil.Therefore,it is more urgent and necessary to study the influencing factors of crude oil price changes.At the same time,in the context of commodity financialization in the 21 st century,crude oil futures have become the largest commodity futures market,and the pricing of international crude oil transactions is very good.To a large extent,it depends on the price of crude oil futures,which makes oil a commodity with strong financial attributes,and many speculative activities different from traditional commercial activities will inevitably have an impact on international oil prices.In such a complex situation,is the factor of oil supply and demand still the dominant force of international oil prices? How much does speculation contribute to crude oil futures? These are all questions worth exploring.Firstly,this paper makes a qualitative analysis of the factors that may affect the international oil price.Then,taking the spot price of WTI crude oil as the index of the international oil price,this paper chooses several factors such as dollar index,gold price,non-commercial multi-position ratio,world crude oil production,consumption and inventory,and combines the relevant historical data from 2000 to 2016,considering the short speculative holding time of futures.We also construct the vector autoregressive(var)model from the long-term(monthly)and short-term(weekly)data for empirical analysis.According to the quantitative analysis of the factors affecting oil prices,in the long run,we find that supply and demand have some influence on international oil prices,but they are no longer dominant.The competitiveness of the international crude oil market has obviously increased.Oil producers have been unable to manipulate oil prices completely at will,but have gradually become the recipients of international oil prices.On the contrary,oil consumption is on the contrary.More obvious impact on oil prices;the dollar has a very important impact on international oil prices,contributing 50% to oil price fluctuations,while futures speculation contributes 13%.Only in the short term,inventory information and gold prices have a certain impact on international oil price fluctuations.At the same time,in the short term,the contribution of futures speculation has risen to 20%,while the exchange rate of the dollar has an impact.The ratio dropped to 25%.As the largest importer of crude oil in the world,China's oil demand plays a decisive role in the world.Therefore,China should actively strive for oil pricing power and enhance the international influence of "RMB oil",so as to improve the whole international crude oil pricing system.Based on these factors,this paper puts forward three policy recommendations.First,we should open up sources and reduce expenditure,and increase reserves.To reduce our dependence on imported petroleum;to improve our petroleum futures market and strengthen the supervision of speculative funds;and to promote the reform of petroleum pricing system and strengthen the role of Renminbi in petroleum pricing system.