Research On Optimization Of Power Supply Structure In China Under The Constraint Of Ecological Civilization

China’s energy resources characteristics determine the dominant position of China’s coal in primary energy consumption.For a long time,the proportion of coal consumption has been higher than 60%.Coal and electricity are two closely related industries.China’s thermal power generation accounts for more than 70%of annual power generation.The massive use of coal has supported the rapid growth of China’s economy.Coal power has always had a great advantage due to its low cost and sufficient resources.However,coal-fired power generation has also brought us great problems.The biggest drawback is pollution.The discharge of pollutants causes environmental pollution.Air pollutants have brought us a series of problems.Emissions reduction is imminent.Our government leaders made a solemn commitment at the 2009 Global Climate Conference,and the unit GDP will be produced by 2020.CO₂ will fall by 40%-45%at the 2005 level.In all walks of life,the task of reducing emissions is the first to bear the brunt.Although China has made great achievements in the development of clean energy,due to the increasing demand for electricity in China,new energy still has certain problems in terms of cost,safety and technology.Coal power is still the supporting force for China’s power demand.The dominant position of coal power will not change for a long time to come.In the future development,the rapid growth of power demand makes us inseparable from coal and electricity,but at the same time we are also facing severe pressure to reduce emissions.Energy conservation and emission reduction have constrained the development of coal power,and the future development potential and trend of coal power what is it,this is related to the country’s energy security issues,but also the positioning of coal-fired power industry itself.What we need to do is to ensure that electricity demand and economic development are not affected while meeting emission reduction requirements.The purpose of this paper is to explore the development trend of China’s coal-fired power industry under the constraints of ecological civilization.On the basis of ensuring the national electricity demand,optimize the power supply structure to meet the national emission reduction targets and realize the transformation of China’s energy strategy.Through the collection and analysis of historical data,the improved power demand forecasting model is constructed by K-means clustering,ridge regression analysis and variance-covariance method.In the power structure optimization research,the total cost is the minimum target.Constraint conditions build a power structure optimization model.It is calculated that under different economic development scenarios,China’s electricity demand forecast for 2020 is7.15-7.26 trillion kwh,and China’s electricity demand forecast for 2030 is 9.2-10.7trillion kwh;in 2020,China’s electricity The total installed capacity is 220.43 million kilowatts,and coal-fired installed capacity accounts for 55%.By 2030,the total installed capacity is 325.76 million kilowatts,and coal-fired installed capacity accounts for 44.5%.In the next decade of development,China’s coal Electricity is still the main provider of electricity demand,but its installed capacity and power generation will continue to decline.Coal power will gradually shift to the main power supply,and the proportion of clean energy will continue to increase.