Driving Factors And Cities' Characteristics Of Air Pollution Health Risk In China

With the rapid industrialization and urbanization,air pollution(especially PM2.5 pollution)has become the prominent environmental problem in China.The State Council and local governments have promulgated various policies to combat air pollution since 2013 to reduce PM2.5-related health burden.Therefore,analyzing the driving factors of PM2.5-related health burden and the mortality abatements attributed to PM2.5 concentrations reduction can not only evaluate the health effect of the air pollution control policy but also provide an important reference in the futureThis study assessed the premature deaths attributed to PM2.5 in China during 2013-2017 based on national mortality rate and IER model.Our study also analyzed the drivers of PM2.5-related health burden during 2013-2017 from each factor incrementally and evaluated the mortality abatements attributed to reduced PM2.5 concentrations during 2013-2017 by desgining scenarios.In order to provide policy recommendations more accurately,this study used the city-level baseline mortality rate to estimate the health burden attributed to PM2.5 in 129 Chinese cities in 2006,2010 and 2015.Main conclusions were as follows:At national level,premature deaths attributed to PM2.5 in China during 2013-2017 were 908,070,911,960,926,470,907,860 and 896,510 repectively,showing a slight decline in volatility.Population growth,aging phenomenon,increasing baseline mortality rate,and decreasing PM2.5 concentration led to +3.0%,+8.5%,-3.6%and-13.1%net change of PM2.5-related premature deaths during 2013-2015 respectively while +1.2%,+6.0%,-2.5%,and-7.8%during 2015-2017.At present,aging phenomenon is the main reason of the increase of PM2.5-related health burden while the reduction of PM2.5 concentration has been the most important factor in reducing the public health burden.During 2013-2017,declined PM2.5 concentrations might have led to a 392,940 reduction of the PM2.5-attributable mortality.The Mortality abatements attributed to reduced PM2.5 concentrations increased,since the PM2.5 concentration showed a steady downward trend during 2014-2017.At city-level,the premature death attributed to PM2.5 in 129 Chinese cities in 2006,2010 and 2015 were 442,150,632,980 and 630,900 respectively.Baseline mortality rate and PM2.5 concentration varied greatly even within the same province,emphasizing the importance and necessity of using localized baseline mortality rate.PM2.5-related premature deaths increased significantly during 2006-2010,which mainly due to the upward trend of PM2.5 concentration.However,PM2.5-related premature deaths were only reduced by 0.4%in the 129 cities,which was not consistent with the improvements in air quality from 2010 to 2015.The reason for the inconsistency is mainly due to the upward trend in baseline mortality rate during 2010-2015 and the growing aging phenomenon in China maybe the main reason for the rapid increase of baseline mortality rate.Our study proposed policy recommendations at nation-and city-level based on the evaluation results.At national level,The State Council should pay attention to not only traditional pollution prevention and control areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei but also areas with low pollution levels such as Ningxia and Hainan and when promulgating air pollution control policy policies.On the one hand,it can prevent the regional transfer of atmospheric pollution emission,ensureing the improvement of air quality in all aspects.On the other hand,it can alleviate the health burden more effectively owing to the higher marginal health of PM2.5 reduction in relatively clean provinces.In addition,with the aging phenomenon more and more serious,the State Council as well as local government should provide medical assistance to sensitive populations such as the elderly population to improve their awareness and protection in the future.At city-level,different types of cities have different priorities in PM2.5 pollution control and public health maintenance.For megalopolises and metropolises,the effect of PM2.5 abatement on alleviating public health burdens was obvious and emphasized the necessity of reducing local air pollutant emissions.However,the costs of further PM2.5 abatement in those cities is generally expensive.Thus,the local government should introduce comprehensive remediation measures such as optimizing economic structures and promoting the development of clean and renewable energy,increasing the standard for pollution discharging,and completing pollutant discharging licenses.At the same time,the government should gradually improve the level of preferential assistance for susceptible populations.Large cities and medium/small cities should implement sustainable green development policies and formulate clear and reasonable development strategies for future urban development,in order to avoid following the path of megalopolises and metropolises in ambient PM2.5 pollution.