Carbon Emission Transfer Of Service-oriented Transformation In Developed Countries

From the general law of international industrial evolution,the status and proportion of the service industry is higher and higher,forming an industrial structure with service industry as the main body,that is,the transformation of economic structure into service.Due to the high value added and low energy consumption,the service industry is considered as a dematerialized,environment-friendly industry.However,developed countries with a service proportion of more than 70%are still the most energy consumers and polluters.Their production-based emissions have not dropped significantly,consumption-based emissions have not fallen,and per capita emissions have far exceeded that of developing countries.Some scholars have questioned the view that the service industry is an environment-friendly industry,and believe that a service-oriented economy may not be able to truly break through resource bottlenecks and environmental constraints.China is at a critical stage of economic transformation,how can we achieve a true low-carbon transformation while vigorously developing service industry and can we learn service-oriented transformation from developed countries in order to achieve low-carbon service transformation?Based on the above research background,this paper applies the global multi-regional input-output model and the world input-output data from 1995 to 2009 to answer the question of whether the service-oriented economy in developed countries is a truly low-carbon economy,to evaluate the international transfer and external spillover effects of carbon emissions,and to explore the focus of global climate governance and global sustainable development,and study China's policy measures to truly achieve low-carbon service transformation.First of all,from the analysis of the country's overall level,it is found that developed countries have been de-industrialized from 1995 to 2011.After the financial crisis,due to the re-industrialization strategy,the proportion of value added in the service industry declined slightly.In the process of service transformation,although the domestic production emissions of developed countries have decreased slightly(3.70%),the per capita carbon emissions are much larger than that of emerging economies(3 times),and the total carbon emissions caused by the final demand of developed countries have not decreased significantly,but continued to rise(4.61%),a large part of which is borne by emerging economies.Therefore,the low-carbon nature of the service-oriented economy in developed countries is illusory and deceptive.The carbon emission effect behind international trade partially obscures the real impact of the service-oriented economy of developed countries on global climate change.China's large population and per capita emissions continue to grow,and a compression-oriented service transformation is taking place,which requires to internalize the negative effects of service transformation.Secondly,from the industrial level,the carbon emission transfer effect of service transformation is analyzed.It is found that the service-oriented economy is not a low-carbon sustainable economy based on the global production supply chain perspective,and the international transfer and external spillover effects are significant.International trade plays an increasingly important role in the environmental impact of the service industry.The international transfer effect of some developed countries is more than 35%,far exceeding that of developing countries(China 7.88%).Among them,the trade of intermediate products is a key factor.China is more engaged in processing trade and receives a large number of service consumption emissions from developed countries,such as 27%of the US,27.84%of Japan,and 41.77%of Australia.In addition,the service industry has a significant pull-back effect.In most countries,the service industry indirectly emits more than half of the emissions.For example,nearly 70%of Spain's emissions come from spillover effects,and developing countries are higher(China 82.56%).And the grrowth rate of external spillover effect is greater than d:irect emissions,indicating that the effect of carbon emissions transfer between industries is enhancedFinally,the MRIO-SPA model method is used to analyze the key sectors and key paths in the production process of the service industry from the industrial path level.It is found that most of the production routes are "domestic service sector?(intermediate production sector)?domestic(foreign)non-service industry" structure,the international path mainly involves the non-service intermediate production sector,and the intermediate non-service trade caused by the final service plays an important role in the environmental impact of the service industry.The direct emissions of the service sector in the single path may be lower than pulling emissions from non-service sector production.'public admin and defense;compulsory social security','health and social work','retail trade','hotels and restaurants,and transport are key demand side sectors,which,in addition to their own direct emissions,have led to other Emissions from the upstream sector,especially in sectors with high carbon intensity,such as'electricity,gas and water supply','chemical industry' and 'coke,refined petroleum and nuclear fuel'.Based on the above research,this paper explores the implications of global sustainable development and China's low carbon service transformation.It is believed that the emission responsibility sharing mechanism should be taken to weaken the carbon emission transfer problem of service transformation.At the same time,the low-carbon service transformation is not only the low-carbon development of the service industry itself,but also the complete service international supply chain emission reduction based on production and consumption.Production-based emission reduction should focus on both service and non-service sectors,and take targeted measures.The key to consumption-based emission reduction is to strengthen the environmental impact of service industry,guide low-carbon consumption patterns,and optimize the intermediate input structure.In addition,China should improve its energy consumption structure,improve production technology,reduce emissions intensity,transform trade patterns,and enhance its position in global value chains.