The Effects Of Carbon Tariff On Trade,Welfare And Emission Reduction

In response to global warming,the UN Climate Conference has gradually established a global climate governance framework through the signing of the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.However,the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities in the Kyoto Protocol stipulates that major developed countries should bear the responsibility of reducing emissions,leading to asymmetric emission reduction between developed and developing countries,which will enable developed countries to transfer pollution-intensive industries to developing countries and cause global carbon leakage problems.In order to solve the problem of carbon leakage in global climate governance,developed countries such as France and the United States have proposed implementing carbon tariffs or border adjustment measures to deal with carbon leakage.This paper studies the impact of carbon tariffs on international trade and global emission reductions under the framework of the Kyoto Protocol,and explores whether carbon tariffs can reduce the total amount of carbon emissions and effectively solve the problem of carbon leakage.It will also explore the impact on the welfare and industrial competitiveness of countries in international trade.This paper establishes a multi-regional and multi-sector structural gravity model,and designs carbon taxation policies for asymmetric emission reduction and a variety of carbon tariff policies through the transmission mechanism of intermediate input and inter-sector input-output linkage.In the case of asymmetric emission reduction and carbon tariffs,global carbon emissions,carbon leakage rates,national welfare,and industrial competitiveness have been counterfactually simulated.This paper finds that carbon tariffs can solve the carbon leakage problem effectively,and have a negative impact on the welfare of many countries.We can formulate emission reduction policies by matching carbon emission reduction responsibilities with the status of trade divisions among countries,so that we can reduce the loss of welfare while reducing emissions.For China,improving the added value of trade activities and transforming the industrial structure into a cleaner industrial structure are both effective measures for China to deal with asymmetric emission reduction and carbon tariff policies.