Reliability Analysis Of China’s Oil Supply Based On Network Theory

The reliable supply of oil plays a major supporting role in safeguarding China’s economic development.The current international political environment is complex and changing,with increasing in international oil resources supply.Therefore,it is very important to study the reliability of China’s oil supply.This paper uses the network analysis method to establish the reliability analysis model of China’s oil supply.By analyzing the relevant characteristics of the different nodes,edges and the whole network of China’s oil import network,the basic measure of the reliability of China’s oil supply is obtained.Based on the risk report published by ICRG,this paper gives the reliability analysis of the country nodes.In the aspect of reliability analysis of the path,this paper mainly uses the number of pirates in different seas and the number of days of storm as the factors influencing the reliability.The degree,degree distribution,clustering coefficient and node strength in complex network theory are used to analyze the overall reliability of China’s oil supply network.The paper also studies the reliability of China’s oil supply in case of abnormal situations.The results of the above analysis show that Saudi Arabia、Oman、Russia and Angola has a high degree of impact on the overall reliability of China’s oil supply.The overall reliability of the Indian Ocean is relatively low.The overall reliability of the supply network is measured to a middle grade.The whole network has strong ability to against the random shock.The ability against the specific destructive impact is relatively weak.On this basis,this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to construct the diversification pattern of oil import and improve the safety of the transportation.