| In the "China-made 2025" plan,the liquefied natural gas(LNG)ship was named as a high-tech ship.In order to promote the adjustment of China’s shipbuilding industry and break through the bottleneck of "big but not strong",LNG ship has become a key direction of transformation of Ship Enterprise.At present,more and more LNG project launched,and safety of LNG ship navigation is concerned in domestic shipping areas gradually.Based on this background,it is of great practical significance to study identification,prevention and control of the LNG ships navigation risk system in Yangpu Port.According to the literature review and investigation,the risk factors which have the characteristics of uncertainty and randomness and influence the navigation safety of LNG ships in Yangpu port area are diversed.Therefore,it is important to identify the risk indicators scientifically and reasonably that affect the navigation safety of LNG ships.On the basis of this,establishing a comprehensive risk assessment system for LNG ships,carrying out scientific risk assessment research,and developing a corresponding risk prevention and control system for the ship navigation safety of Yangpu Port LNG is of great significance.In this paper,the navigation safety of LNG ships in Yangpu port area is taken as the object of evaluation,and under the guidance of safety system theory to analyze the characteristics of LNG ship and its navigation requirements.The characteristics of LNG and LNG ship,the safety of LNG ship and the navigation conditions are analyzed.According to the literature review,expert consultation and characteristics of the navigable environment of Yangpu port area,the navigation risk identification of LNG ships in Yangpu port area is realized based on the combination of Delphi and expert experience method.It is laying the foundation to make the risk assessment system scientific and rational.On the basis of risk identification,through the review literatures to understand the applicability and characteristics of the evaluation method combined with the existing methods of navigation risk assessment of LNG ships.We choose a morereasonable and practical risk assessment method-entropy weight and fuzzy Model.According to the field investigation and expert investigation,the risk evaluation index system of LNG ship navigation safety in Yangpu port area is constructed,and the navigation risk evaluation of LNG ship in Yangpu port area is realized,which provide a scientific basis for the prevention of LNG ship navigation risk.Finally,the quantitative risk control method based on the Interpretative structure model and Bayes is used to determine the hierarchical relationship between the internal structure and get the risk probability of the risk index through the conditional probability during the voyage,which provides a mathematical basis for the navigation risk control of the ship.Another,the classification of LNG ship navigation risk and the deviation of the risk degree of is achieved by the FSA and Hazop.We make the table to achieve the purposes of risk prevention and control in Yangpu port LNG ship navigation,which provide a scientific reference and basis for the relevant water safety management and shipping enterprises to establish a sound water security mechanism. |
