Research On The Factors That Affect The Carbon Emission Trading Price Under The Clean Development Mechanism

At present,the global warming caused by greenhouse gas emission has become a major threat to the survival of mankind after the Second World War.There are many kinds of methods in the process of responding to climate change,through marketoriented means to solve the problem of greenhouse gas emission is a new concept,has been recognized by the international community.In December 1997,Tokyo,"the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change" held the third conference,which carried out the "Kyoto Protocol"."Kyoto Protocol" is a legal document to limit the greenhouse gas emission,opens the door to the global carbon trading.Solving the problem of greenhouse gas emission by market approach can make full use of the market mechanism,forming the most reasonable market trading price,weakening the price distortions in the allocation of resources.The Kyoto protocol identified three carbon emissions trading mechanism.China is rich in carbon emission resources,CDM(Clean Development Mechanism)is a suitable method for us to participate in international carbon trading market.But at present,China is lack of the knowledge of pricing,the pricing is controlled by buyers of developed countries,China acts as a “cheap seller " role.Researching the affecting factors of carbon emission trading price under CDM can help our country to have a clear understanding of the formation mechanism of the international carbon emission trading price,help us to release risks,to obtain reasonable economic benefits in the international carbon trading market,conducive to the rational allocation of the scarce carbon emission resources in the international world.This thesis takes carbon emission trading price of the two level market under CDM as the research object,uses the CERs(Certified Emission Reductions,CERs)trading price datas from May 2008 to October 2016 of the EEX,mainly adopts the stationarity test,cointegration test,principal component analysis,regression analysis and analysis method of residual analysis measurement to find the key affecting factors.This thesis consists of six parts.The first chapter explains the purpose and significance of the research,the research content and research methods,and summarizes the domestic and foreign literature about CDM and carbon emission trading.The second chapter elaborates the related concepts and the relevant economic theories of carbon emissions trading,analyzes the current situation of carbon emission trading under the CDM from the aspects of qualitative and quantitative.The third chapter analyzes the affecting factors of trading price from the primary market and the secondary market,researches the interrelation between the price of the primary market and the secondary market.The fourth chapter put forward the research hypothesis and research objects.In the fifth chapter,based on the data,the econometric model is used to establish the regression model of the factors affecting the carbon price in the secondary market.The sixth chapter is the summary and prospect.Through series of theoretical and empirical analysis,the research conclusion is as follows: the global monthly CERs issuance volume,Brent crude oil futures settlement price,the 27 countries of the European Union economic sentiment index,the FTSE 100 index,the global climate conference and CERs secondary market price is negatively related;EUAs prices in Europe,ARA port power coal price,27 EU Industrial production index,extreme climate and CERs secondary market price CERs is positively related.