A Study On The Impact Of China’s Industrial Structure Changes On Air Pollutant Emissions And PM_2.5 Inter-regional Transfer Emissions

Air pollution has become one of the most concerned environmental issues in China in recent years.Plenty of studies have been conducted on this issue but most focus on the causes of increased air pollution based on physical or chemical methods.Few researchers studied the driving forces of air pollutant emissions from a socio-economic perspective.Based on the macroeconomic theory and method,taking PM_2.5 precursors（SO₂,soot and dust）as the main research objects,this paper studied the impacts of China’s industrial structure changes between 2002 and 2010 on the air pollutant emissions from industrial source by using input-output model and hypothesis extraction method.In addition,we measured the PM_2.5 emission of major provinces and sectors in China in 2012 based on the energy consumption data and calculated the inter-regional transfer emissions from a production-based perspective（hypothesis extraction method）and consumption-based perspective（ecological network analysis method）respectively.We analyzed the characteristics of PM_2.5 emissions in various regions and the rules of emissions transferring among regions,as well as identified the regions and sectors which dominated the transfer emissions.Results showed that:（1）The emissions of SO₂,soot and dust from industrial sources increased by56.46%,36.95%and 11.69%respectively in 2010,compared with 2002.As major contributors to emissions,the power and gas sectors were responsible for the growing SO₂ emissions,the nonmetal products sector for soot emissions,and the metals mining,smelting and pressing sectors for dust emissions.The increasing volume of emissions was mainly driven by the growing demand in the transport equipment and electrical equipment sectors.In addition,the expansion in the metals mining,smelting and pressing sectors could result in even more severe air pollution.（2）The three regions with the most PM_2.5 direct emissions in 2012 are Northern,Central and Southwestern China,with the first two had the most embodied emission（consumption-based）and demand emission（production-based）,followed by Eastern China.The largest embodied transfer emission is from Northern to Eastern,which means Northern China undertakes high-load of emissions caused by consumption in Eastern China.For regions,more than 90%of consumption-based emissions come from basic industries,energy industries and service while more than 76%of production-based emissions come from service,construction and machinery and other manufacturing industries.Northern China has the most control effect over other regions,controlling 21.6%of the total emissions.In contrast,Southern China has the highest reliance on the other regions.The consumption of construction in all regions are highly dependent on the other sectors,while energy and basic industries（especially those in in Northern China）have the most control effect over others.Although the results of the study are needed to refine,they reflect the impacts of China’s industrial structure changes on inter-sectoral embodied emissions from industrial sources,as well as showed the characteristics of inter-regional embodied PM_2.5.5 transfer emissions.It provides a theoretical reference in the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure and layout for our country,which is struggling to realize coordinated development of economic society and environmental protection.