Study On The Mechanism Of Carbon Price Fluctuation

With the development of industrial activity,the emissions of carbon dioxide have got more and more attention of people.Since the start of the carbon emission trading in 2013,there have been seven pilot provinces,such as shenzhen,guangzhou,Beijing Tianjin,and so on.This paper focuses on the analysis of the characteristics of carbon price fluctuation and the analysis of the influence degree.For the analysis of carbon price fluctuation,this paper adopts:(1)time series method:by selecting the logarithmic yield of GDEA and HBEA and HBEA1705 price to analyze the characteristics of carbon price fluctuation,the three groups of logarithmic yield have the effect of "fluctuation cluster".Both of them are non-normal distribution,and have prominent peak and thick tail characteristics.(2)H-P filtering method:the carbon price fluctuation of 17 March 2014 to March 17,2017 is divided into eight cycles,and it is found that the price fluctuation cycle has non-repeatability and asymmetry.The international carbon market provided us a lot of experience and lessons,carbon trading market in China should be comprehensive consideration of various factors that influence the fluctuation corresponding policy plan,ensure carbon market steady operation.For influence factors and influence degree of research,this paper adopts the method of GCV-Lasso,eight aspects of selected 13 factors make the variable selection and parameter estimation,and finally draw the conclusion:the DAX30,coking coal price,the OPEC basket price of crude oil,HBEA price,SSE180 index has a positive influence on carbon quota price fluctuations,EUA price,the S&P 500 index,the HS300 index,thermal coal prices and the dollar against the yuan central parity,guangzhou daily average temperature has a negative influence on the carbon price fluctuations,CER influencing factors price,the euro against the yuan central parity rate of no significant fluctuations in the price of carbon.Because of the lack of pricing mechanism,passive situation in the international carbon market in China,as the largest carbon dioxide emitter,need to sort out the carbon price fluctuation influence factors,forecast the carbon price,reasonable carbon asset pricing.This paper presents a prospect for the pricing of the n-order moment matching formula of Vasicek-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.With a view to making China's carbon market go global,China's carbon market is in line with the international carbon market,taking a holistic view and taking the path of carbon trading with Chinese characteristics.