| Coal is one of the important energy sources supporting the economic development in the world today,but coal mine fires remain a major hidden danger in the safety production process of coal mines.Due to the high mining speed in the goaf of the 50105 working face of the Hejiata Coal Mine,the large amount of floating coal in the goaf remains,and the relatively large amount of air supply in the working face,but the management of the air leakage is inconvenient,and it is easy to cause the goaf coal spontaneous combustion.Based on the characteristics of natural spontaneous combustion of spontaneous coal seam coal in the goaf of 50105 working face in Hejiata coal mine,this paper studies the spontaneous combustion law of leftover coal in goaf,determines the forecasting index,establishes coal self-ignition prediction model and verifies its effectiveness.Firstly,the Xi’an University of Science and Technology used a large-scale experimental platform to measure the spontaneous combustion characterization parameters of the Hejiata coal,and analyzed the parameters such as the index gas,temperature,oxygen consumption rate,heat release intensity and natural firing period in the process of coal spontaneous combustion.The shortest spontaneous combustion period of the coal sample test for the tower coal mine is 45 days,and the actual spontaneous combustion period is 46 days.Secondly,observation experiments are conducted on the goaf of the 50105 working face of the Hejiata coal mine,and the temperature and CO concentration of the gob of the working face are obtained.Finally,combined with grey correlation analysis,temperature and CO were selected as forecasting indicators.The experimental and on-site observation data were combined with least-squares method to fit the data.Predictive models with temperature and CO concentration as predictors were obtained.The difference analysis shows that the reliability of the temperature prediction model is higher;the application of the temperature prediction model to the on-site prediction to obtain the shortest coal spontaneous combustion period of 44 days is a good example of validating the validity of the coal self-ignition temperature prediction model.The prediction model is similar.The conditions of the coal mine have certain reference and reference. |