Study On The Impact Of The Price Changes Of Imported LNG On Carbon Emissions

With the rapid development of economy and society,the demand for energy in China is increasing rapidly.With the increasingly sharp contradiction between supply and demand of energy,some problems such as aggravation of environmental pollution and increasing emission of greenhouse gas have occurred,and the problem of energy saving and emission reduction is very serious.Due to the advantages of natural gas relative to the cleanness of traditional energy and low cost of conversion,China's energy planning in 13 th Five-Year will focus on the development of energy in this phase.China's natural gas self-sufficiency rate is not high,and liquefied natural gas imports account for nearly half of China's natural gas imports.According to the classic price supply and demand theory,the price of imported LNG directly affects the target of energy saving and emission reduction in this stage.The article first analyzes the micro basis of the price of imported LNG and the carbon emission of our country: by using the evolutionary game model of the enterprise,from the two directions of the homogeneous and heterogeneous enterprises,the behavior factors that affect the emission reduction of the enterprises are the carbon emission income,the government penalty,the increase of energy cost and the reduction of energy saving.With the increase of carbon emission income,the overall carbon emission will rise and then decrease significantly with the increase of carbon emission income,and the enterprise will have different evolution directions because of the different initial conditions and similarities of enterprises.The government can shorten the time of enterprise evolution by adjusting the above factors.Then through the empirical analysis of the adaptation,adjustment and related data of the STIRPAT(random regression model),it is concluded that the current stage of natural gas price fluctuation can explain 6.6% of the change of carbon emission in China and its effect is steadily rising,while the rising of natural gas price in the short term is that a small amount of carbon displacement is rising in the short term.The manufacturers will choose the traditional energy to replace the natural gas and lead to the increase of carbon emissions,and the firm will choose to improve the energy utilization rate or choose new energy for a long time,and the carbon emissions will continue to decline.At the same time to verify the relationship between the price of imported LNG and the carbon emission,the paper also makes a causal analysis of the global carbon emission data and the price of liquefied natural gas(LNG),and shows that LNG is the Grainger cause of the global carbon emissions.Finally,according to the results of the above theory and empirical analysis,it is suggested that the government should support the implementation of China's energy policy by increasing the price of liquefied natural gas,stabilizing the import of liquefied natural gas,and continuing policies and funds,accelerating the establishment of carbon trading market and making suggestions for China's carbon emission reduction.