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An Empirical Study On The Cause Of Haze In China Based On LMDI And Graphical Model

Posted on:2019-12-13Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:X LuoFull Text:PDF
GTID:2371330548971607Subject:Applied Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Since the 21st century,China's economy has developed rapidly and all kinds of economic indicators have made historic breakthroughs.However,It also brought with a series of environmental issues such as global warming,soil erosion,air pollution,and so on.Especially in recent years,there have been noticeable increases in haze weather in many areas in China,which has had a serious impact on the daily lives of the people.In order to understand the causes of the haze weather in more detail,this paper selects several driving factors that have a significant influence on the cause of haze weather,and has done some researches,including decomposition,feature reduction,and clustering,and then uses data visualization technique to analyze them in depth;analyze their internal causes and take corresponding counter measures.It has very important theoretical and practical significance to reduce the cities' haze pollution effectively in China and promote sustainable economic development.In this paper,Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)is used to decompose the driving factors that influence the cause of PM2.5 in China.Also I use the graphical model for community discovery research.The main idea is to use the relevant data of the last 10 years in 31 provinces or cities of China,starting from the four aspects of smog emission coefficient,coal-based energy structure,energy intensity and economic development,to establish a factor decomposition model of the amount of smog pollution per capita,and use statistical technique to visualize data and reveal the major drivers and inhibitors associated with smog pollution in various provinces or cities in China.Then,using t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding(t-SNE)to reduce the dimension of the data,and divide the major provinces and cities in China into 3 areas for comparing.Afterwards,I use the distribution of PM2.5 to establish a graphical model and conduct spectral clustering to compare pollution levels and intrinsic links in different regions.Finally,according to the results of the model analysis,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for improving the current haze pollution in China are proposed.The main conclusions and recommendations are as follows:1.During the period from 2006 to 2015,the pollution of haze in 31 provinces or cities in China continued to intensify,showing an upward trend on the whole.2.From a geographical point of view,the distribution of haze pollution is semi-enveloped,with heavy pollution in the inner area and light pollution in the outer area.3.The coal-based energy structure and energy intensity factors basically act as an inhibitory effect in the haze pollution,however,in some provinces or cities,they act as a pulling effect.On the whole,the more reasonable the energy structure is,the higher the efficiency of energy use,the lighter the haze pollution will be.4.The relevant departments should reasonably control the rate of economic growth,work hard to develop new energy sources,improve the energy utilization structure,increase the efficiency of energy use,reduce the intensity of energy use,focus on regional linkages and implement district governance.
Keywords/Search Tags:Haze pollution, LMDI, Graphical model, Spectral clustering, t-SNE
PDF Full Text Request
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