Research On Pre-sale Pricing Of Coal Resources

Under the current economic environment in China,the coal industry faces major challenges such as the energy revolution and supply-side structural reforms.The coal trading platform is also currently undergoing supply chain management and supply chain finance development in order to seek survival while looking into the long-term development path.On the basis of the current supply chain,the emergence of blockchain technology has given the supply chain greater development potential,and also provided new possibilities for financial products.This article starts from the actual application scenario and considers the pricing of pre-sale products for coal resources.From two different perspectives,this paper constructs two different pre-sale pricing models based on the pricing mechanism of American options.The first is to consider the price return process of the O-U process as the basic price process and the American option as the pre-sale pricing model for the pricing method.In this paper,the Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index at the frequency of weekly data from the late October of 2010 to the beginning of March of 2018 is selected as the historical price of coal.The parameters of the model were estimated by the least square method,and Monte Carlo method was used for numerical simulation.The pre-sale price of coal under this model was obtained.The second is the idea of introducing real options.Considering that the price process and the execution price process are geometric Brownian motions,real options similar to American options are used as pre-sale pricing models for pricing methods.In the same way,through the historical data of the previous price history and historical seaborne transportation price as the historical data of price and execution price,the parameters in the model are estimated,and the pre-sale price under the model is obtained by Monte Carlo simulation.