Simulation And Selection For Water Ecosystem Security Of ChangSha Multipurpose Hydraulic Project Reservoir Area In Xiangjiang River

Lakes and rivers have its own ecosystem structure and the change regulation,the construction of water conservancy facilities through changing the structure of the river morphology affect the internal operation mechanism,which makes its own ecological system structure change.The construction of the Xiangjiang comprehensive hub in Changsha has made the hydrological characteristics of the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan section of Xiangjiang significantly changed,and the water ecosystem also changed.The health of the water ecosystem directly affects the human survival and the sustainable development of the society.Therefore,the research of Xiangjiang Changsha Comprehensive reservoir area water ecological security has important significance to protect the reservoir water ecosystem and promote economic and social development of the reservoir area.This paper studies the actual situation on the basis of the definition of the research of water ecosystem security time and space boundary,using the system dynamics method to constuct the model of water ecosystem security in the reservoir area,and the reservoir water ecosystem development simulation.On this basis,each subsystem is analyzed,and the water ecological security of the reservoir area is simulated,the different scenario scheme is designed,and the scheme is selected.According to the simulation results,considering the relevant planning of the reservoir area,changing the value of the relevant decision variables,we explore the best plan for the future development of the reservoir area,and put forward the management countermeasures and safeguard measures for the development of the reservoir area.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The prediction results of the subsystems show that the water ecological environment in the reservoir area is facing greater pressure.The rapid increase of population and the development of economy bring the increase of pollutants into the river.At the same time,the economic loss of net GDP is bigger and bigger.This indicates that the water ecological security in reservoir area is facing greater pressure.(2)In view of the situation that the water ecological environment of the reservoir area is facing great pressure,three different scenarios are set up.The analysis shows that the economic development type is greater than the ecological development type,and the natural state type is the smallest in economic development;In the amount of pollution entering the river,the economic development type is larger than the natural state type,and the ecological development type is the smallest;In the Net GDP economic loss,the economic development type is larger than the natural state,and the ecological development type is the smallest.Combined with Entropy weight fuzz method,we have scored the plan:The ecological development type is superior to the natural state,and the economic development type is the worst.Through the above analysis,the ecological development type is most suitable for the future water ecological security development in the reservoir area.(3)In view of the future development of the reservoir area,the following suggestions are put forward:perfect the industrial structure and realize the green development;prevention and control of pollution and improvement of water ecological environment in the reservoir area;work and pull together to maintain the water environment in the reservoir area.