Evaluation Of Ecological Carrying Capacity In Central Asia And Mongolia Based On MODIS Satellite Data

Central Asia and Mongolia are in the core areas along the Belt and Road and are important neighbors of China.Since the implementation of the Belt and Road strategy.China's economic exchanges with other countries have become more frequently.While the ecological carrying capacity of Central Asia and Mongolia is weak,China with the countries along the Belt and Road will face greater ecological and environmental risks in the future.Under this background,assessing the Belt and Road Ecological Carrying Capacity is of great significance for mitigating economic construction to reduce potential risks on the ecological environment.Based on the MODIS satellite data,this paper compared and analyzed the changes of the net primary productivity,land cover types,and the net primary productivity of each type of land.Combined with the calculation model of ecological carrying capacity and GIS spatial analysis methods,the ecological carrying capacity of the study area was calculated and analyzed.At the same time,combined with the population,GDP and DMSP/OLS data,the changes of the ecological carrying Capacity and spatial distribution were conducted and analysed in detail.And the main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)From 2003 to 2013,the net primary productivity in Central Asia decreased year by year.The NPP values in the northern and south-eastern Central Asian regions were high relatively,while those in the central and western regions were relatively low.From 2005 to 2015,the NPP of Mongolia showed an upward trend year after year.The space distribution of NPP in this country showed gradually increasing from south to north.The NPP of forest land in Central Asia and Mongolia was the strongest among all types of land cover,and the change of NPP in forest land was smaller and more stable,and the stability of the NPP in bare land was the worst.(2)The per capita ecological carrying capacity of Central Asia showed a downward trend from 2003 to 2013.The ecological carrying capacity of northern Kazakhstan was better than that of the southwestern region.That value in Kazakhstan was much higher than that of the other four countries and the stability of ecological carrying capacity was good.The ecological carrying capacity in Turkmenistan was about 5 ha/capita,and the stability was the weakest among the five countries in Central Asia.The western region of Tajikistan had better ecological carrying capacity than the eastern part,and the per capita ecological carrying capacity was the weakest among the five countries.The ecological carrying capacity of Turkmenistan was strong in the southeast and weak in the northwest,and the change in the eastern region was more obvious than that in the western region.Uzbekistan had a lower ecological carrying capacity in the northwest and in the east,and the ecological carrying capacity in south region is superior to that in the western region.(3)The ecological carrying capacity of Mongolia decreased slightly from 2005 to 2015.and some provinces fluctuated greatly.The average national ecological carrying capacity was maintained at about 5ha/capita.The ecological carrying capacity in the south of Mongolia was relatively weak,and the northern ecological carrying capacity was better.The ecological carrying capacity of Govisumber Province and Sukhbaatar Province fluctuated greatly.The ecological carrying capacity of Arkhangai Province,Khangai Province and the Central Province fluctuated less.The ecological carrying capacity in Selenge Province,Dalhan Province and Burgen Province was stronger than that of other provinces.And the Dundgovi Province,Dornogovi Province and Govi-Altai Province were weaker than other provinces.(4)The types of land cover and ecological carrying capacity along the Steppe Road showed differences and enhancements from south to north.In the 100-km buffer zone.grassland was the dominant type of land cover,and bare land was found in the southern part of the Gobi Desert in the south.In the northern part this region,the amount of cultivated land and woodland increased gradually,and forest land was distributed in the northeastern region widely.Districts were mostly distributed along the railway.The ecological carrying capacity in the area along the Steppe Road was stronger in the north,about 35-70ha,and was weak in the south,for about 0-20ha.