Driving Force Analysis And Scenario Analysis Of Chinese Steel Consumption

In the last 20 years,the steel industry in China has developed rapidly,and the crude steel output and steel consumption in China has increased dramatically,leading to the expansion of production capacity.How much of the steel we need! If we can accurately predict the future steel consumption,we can have a reasonable reduction in capacity to use resources more efficiently and to maximize the protection of the environment from the source.Factors affecting steel consumption is not only complex but also changeable.With the gradual development of a national economy,its economic structure and industrial structure can change and the impact factors of steel consumption also changesMFA,MCP and average service life of steel were used in this paper.Based on that,factor analysis approach was used to determine factors of steel consumption,including of in-use steel and its average service life,productivity per unit in-use steel and steel production per GDP and analyzed the four factors effect on steel consumption.Based on use and cycle life of steel products consumption structure of steel was researched using weighted average method.Then the number and average service years of in-use steel can be got.The productivity per unit in-use steel and steel production per unit gross domestic product can be obtained.It shows that the more in-use steel,the more steel consumption;steel consumption increases with average service life of in-use steel;steel consumption decreases with productivity per unit in-use steel;steel consumption increases with steel production per unit gross domestic product.The steel consumption is divided into six sectors,respectively analyzing steel consumption.It shows that the rate of steel consumption in construction sector is fifty percent;the rate of steel consumption in machinery sector is about fifteen percent;the rate of the other sectors is less than them.Considering S-Curve and polynomial model,it consist of four scenarios to simulate steel consumption.It is indicated that when the growth rate of GDP is 7 percent,steel output per gross domestic product is 0.1248 t/10000yuan and the service time of in-use steel increased to 8.4 years,steel consumption is 0.77 billion.