Analysis And Dynamic Evaluation Of The Ecological Safety Of Pingtan Island

Our country have established comprehensive experimental zone of Pingtan Island to inject the vitality of the rapid development and produce a blueprint for planning the construction of the island livable city,set up a cross-strait bridge of the society,economic and cultural exchanges.In order to achieve the mutual coordination of the the island construction and ecological environment,the paper make a dynamic assessment of the ecological environment of the island to evaluate the ecological security dynamic situation in Pingtan Island,the ecological carrying capacity of dynamic conditions and land-use type dynamic situation and to predict the corresponding driving force analysis and the status of the next decade.In order to improve the objectivity and accuracy of evaluation and mutual to make up for of the advantages and disadvantages of each evaluation model method,Use of screening Composite index method,Principal component projection Law,Gray correlation method,Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method to make a dynamicevaluation of Pingtan Island ecological security,The result is basically the same,And found that the ecological and environmental conditions of Pingtan Island constantly optimize over the next decade,predicted by linear fitting method.Based on the research results at home and abroad,with the actual situation of Pingtan Island,we Screened 70 evaluation factors,Combined with Entropy Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process to determine the weight,applying the comprehensive index to calculate the ecological safety of Pingtan Island in 2001,2005 to 2011,found The ecological security status of Pingtan Island is overall upward trend,especially 2010 to 2011 is the most obvious,to achieve a good level.The main reason is with the development and construction of the island,Led to rapid social and economic development,Government departments respond investment for the growing pressure.The most critical factor is response greater than the pressure which cause constantly optimize the ecological situation in Pingtan Island;By principal component analysis and path analysis method found that socio-economic factors is the key which make Pingtan Island ecological security posture change.By principal component projection method obtained results of the evaluation found that the ecosystem health of the Pingtan Island in evaluation years have a significantly increased;The future state of the environment continuous optimization.Pingtan Island is constantly stepped into the ecological island city;According to eighted more heavily Sort of new entropy rights driving forces found that the Health social security investment to GDP ratio,Annual afforestation area response factors etc play a significant impact on the ecological environment on the island of Pingtan,that also explains and confirms why Pingtan Island in the development of the quality of the environment has continued to optimize.By average correlation coefficient method and the weighting method get grey correlation degree found ecological security state of Pingtan Island show a general upward trend and constantly optimize the quality of the environment;According to gray relational weight order conduct driving Forces found four states factors:Growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods,Air pollution index,The registered urban unemployment rate,The total output of aquatic products city life garbage treatment rate,Greening rate of the island;Two response factors:City industrial output value growth rate,Tourists arrivals;Two driving factors which play a key impact on Eco-environmental quality of Pingtan Island.Use the filter out of the 34 evaluation index and combined with fuzzy recognition theory to construct a Ecological security assessment model of Pingtan Island.This paper gives only two evaluation model,the second level useEntropy method and Gray correlation method combined weights as the evaluation index weight;The first level use AHP to determine the weight,Show the relative importance of Indicators more objective,the results of the evaluation has Certain scientific and objective.By calculating the ecological security state of Pingtan Island Showed a rising trend,before 2010 in general better,after 2010 achieve better between,Its ecological environment will continue to improve in the next 10 years;Rely on single contribution index to conducted driving force analysis,the results can be found that prior to 2008,the state factors and impact factor is the main driving force of the ecological state of the environment;However,after 2010,response factor becomes the main driving force.The main reason is to accelerate the development and construction of the island at the same time;Steadily push forward the construction of ecological city;Speed up scientific and technological innovation capacity building;Improve the eco-city scientific and technological level;The construction of urban economic restructuring;Raising the city's economic efficiency and increase public input;Promote comprehensive and coordinated development of urban social,economic and natural ecosystems.On the basis of use Ecological Footprint method to calculate the situation of the ecological carrying capacity of Pingtan Island,found the island rapid development and construction,the ecological surplus,ecosystem development remains steadily at the same time;With the steady decline of ecological stress conditions,ecological security and ecological footprint diversity index steady improvement;Through correlation coefficient method analysis found temperature and precipitation sunshine this three natural driving force factor have a little effect to the island ecological carrying capacity;But Socio-economic driving factors,water quality compliance rate,average annual loss rate of arable land have a larger impact;Use exponential smoothing and linear fitting to Forecast the situation of these seven indicators in the next decade and found the ecological and environmental conditions of Pingtan island overall In a stable trend and continuous optimization to improve,and continue to move forward for The goal of the ecological island livable city.By the analysis of the number and degree of development of land use on the island of Pingtan,we found that Island land-use changes in the number of types is generally stable and the degree of development is steadily;wirh the establishment of a comprehensive experimental zone of the island,After entering the island accelerate construction period,Residential construction land and transportation land showing a dynamic upward change;Intensity of land use change,Land reclamation rate,Land use diversity continue to improve;Via the analysis of Relative coefficient method,we find the drive force of Island land use types change are Growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods,Per cultivated food production,Growth rate of land development area,Per capita forest area of the main socio-economic factors;And Irrelevant with natural factors.Via the dynamic evaluation of the ecological security of Pingtan Island,the ecological carrying capacity and the analysis of land use to promote the coordination of construction of ecological environment with land use and economic development and resources and environment in harmony and Provide a scientific basis for the early warning of regional ecological security,land use planning and economic environment and ecological development.