Analysis On Dynamic Evolution Of The Ecological Footprint And Driving Force In Qinghai Province

With the development of global economy rapidly, resource shortage andenvironmental problems have become increasingly prominent, the idea ofsustainable development has been much concerned. To achieve the goal ofsustainable development, human activities must be within the ecological carryingcapacity. Since China launched the strategy of developing the country’s west,Qinghai province has achieved rapidly development in all aspects. To achievesustainable development, the dynamic evolution of the ecological footprint ofQinghai province is particularly important. We must compare the ecologicalfootprint and ecological carrying capacity, and then evaluate the sustainabledevelopment status of this area. Kinds of factors are closely related to thedevelopment of everything. So by the qualitative and quantitative analysis ondynamic evolution of the ecological footprint and driving force in Qinghai province,we can provide scientific reference for achieving sustainable social and economicdevelopment and using resources and energy reasonably in the future.Based on the ecological footprint theory and related evaluation index, this paperfirst calculated the ecological footprint in1983-2012and relevant a particular year ofecological carrying capacity of Qinghai province. And using the principalcomponents analysis method, this paper analyzed the driving factors of its ecologicalfootprint evolution.The results show that:Firstly, ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity changes showedthe reverse trend in Qinghai province. The ecological footprint shows increasingtrend, the fossil energy increased obviously, the proportion increased from37.55%in1983to73.74%in2012. And from the overall perspective, the ecological carryingcapacity had small declines. In certain ecological carrying capacity, the increasingecological footprint leads to ecological deficit in Qinghai province. At the beginningof2007, ecological deficit has emerged and expanded, from274.2thousand hectaresin2007increased to3.3536million hectares in2012.It showed that humanutilization of natural resources has exceeded the ecological carrying capacity.Secondly, by using the grey system GM (1,1) model, this paper predicted theper capita of ecological footprint and carrying capacity from2013to2020. The results suggest that the per capita of ecological footprint will increase significantly,but the ecological carrying capacity will decrease steadily, the ecological deficit willgradually expand.Finally, using the method of principal component analysis, the driving factorsof ecological footprint were selected and analyzed. the main reasons of the growth ofecological footprint were that the social and economic factors, the number ofresident population, per capita GDP, the rate of city, the first and the second industry,the proportion of investment in fixed assets, the level of average consumption ofurban and rural residents, the average yield of grain.