Thresholds And Spatial Spillover Effects Of Population Migration In Agriculture On Cultivated Land Use Efficiency

Affected by economic development,large-scale transfer of agricultural population has become an inevitable trend.This releases surplus rural labor,eases the phenomenon of "over-dense growth" in grain production,and is conducive to the improvement of the efficiency of cultivated land use.However,economic development has also led to a general rise in labor prices.Relatively low-cost agricultural means of production such as pesticides,fertilizers,and agricultural machinery have effectively replaced large amounts of labor to participate in farmland production.Although food production has been guaranteed in the short term,agricultural non-point source pollution have been exacerbated and greatly hindered the improvement of cultivated land use efficiency.Therefore,grasping the dynamics of population migration in agriculture,recognizing the current status of cultivated land use,deeply exploring the impact of agricultural population transfer on cultivated land use efficiency,finding out whether there is a turning relationship and spatial correlation in this impact,further improving cultivated land use efficiency and stabilize food yield,and reasonably guiding population migration in agriculture are of great significance.This article takes 11 prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi Province as the research object,and uses panel data from 2009 to 2018 as a sample to study whether the impact of agricultural population transfer on cultivated land use efficiency has a threshold effect and a space spillover effect.Firstly,the agricultural migration population in each city during the survey period was calculated based on the relevant data on related data of population movements in the statistical yearbook.Secondly,the super EBM(Epsilon-based measure)model was used to measure the agricultural land use efficiency in each city,taking into account non-point source pollution.Furthermore,based on the above data,the threshold effect of agricultural population transfer on the cultivated land utilization efficiency was tested by panel threshold model with the proportion of agricultural transfer population in the agricultural population as a threshold variable.Finally,the spatial panel model was used to verify the population migration in agriculture spatial spillover effects on cultivated land use efficiency.The following conclusions are obtained through the above studies:Firstly,in terms of migrant population in agriculture,at the end of the study period,the number of agricultural transfer population in all cities of Jiangxi Province increased,and the degree of population migration in agriculture continued to deepen.The regional differences of agricultural transfer population in different cities were significant,and the trend of expansion was significant.Secondly,as far as cultivated land use efficiency is concerned,the cultivated land use efficiency of various cities in the study period has generally increased,and the increase has been significant.By 2018,7 cities have reached the state of effective use,and the use of cultivated land in the province has improved.Thirdly,as far as the threshold effect is concerned,the empirical results show that the impact of population migration in agriculture on cultivated land use efficiency in most regions of Jiangxi Province in 2018 shows a threshold effect.Before and after the threshold value(0.369),population migration in agriculture always promoted the use of cultivated land increased,but its influence coefficient decreased after crossing the threshold,from 0.4465 to 0.2034,and the promotion effect was reduced by 54%.Fourthly,in terms of spatial spillover effects,spatial geographic factors have a significant role in promoting the efficiency of cultivated land use.With the deepening of China's agricultural marketization,the production factors between regions frequently flow,and the spatial dependence of efficient use of cultivated land between cities dependence is significantly strengthened.The empirical results show that the direct effect(0.7816),indirect effect(0.9863)and total effect(1.7679)of the agricultural population transfer in various cities in Jiangxi Province have passed the 1% significance test,which positively promotes the improvement of cultivated land use efficiency and shows significant space spillover effectBased on the above research results,this article proposes the following suggestions on how to adapt to the general trend of population migration in agriculture and further improve the efficiency of cultivated land use: Firstly,it is recommended to adjust the input structure of existing production factors to reduce the input of elements that are not conducive to ecological sustainable development,such as chemical fertilizers and pesticides;starting from the government and farmers,reducing non-point source pollution,and promoting the ecological development of cultivated land.Secondly,according to whether the proportion of agricultural transfer population crosses the threshold,it is divided into different areas,and countermeasures to improve the efficiency of the use of cultivated land in different areas are proposed for different regions.For areas where the proportion of agricultural transfer population does not reach the threshold,the transfer of rural surplus labor can continue to be promoted;for areas where the proportion of agricultural transfer population exceeds the threshold,while promoting the transfer of agricultural population,the focus should be on the use of cutting-edge technology and other production factors in the use of cultivated land.Thirdly,take spatial correlation as the focal point and create more space overflow conditions as decision-making goals to improve the efficiency of cultivated land use in the region.Through the establishment of a complete agricultural cooperation mechanism and agricultural policy linkage mechanism,the efficiency of cultivated land use in the entire region can be improved.