| Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) is the intergrated result of nature factors and anthropogenic factors, however, its result has effects on many ground, such as land resource management, invironment, climate and sustainable development of regional society. With the fast development of mining in Tanglang river basin, its LUCC became rapidly and complicated, as well as the local economics and ecological environment changed distinct. Therefore, conducting the research on LUCC analysis and simulation has an important significance, both on academe and society. In this study, we obtained a series land cover maps (i.e.,1991,2000,2009,2014) in Tang lang river basin prefecture by using of interpreted TM/ OLI images. Through statistic analyzation of these four maps, we got the current situation of land cover in Tang Lang river basin, and then, we analyzed land cover driving force with additional DEM and other data. Combining GIS with CA-Markov model, the future land cover is predicted based on transformation rules of cell, which made by analysis all types of land cover space distribution in Tang lang river basin. The result showed that:(1)The four land cover maps were got by the method of combining visual interpretation and extra data including the second Chinase land use survey、Yunnan province Mining right database and field investigation. During interpretation, the tignt band was chosed and conbined by principal component analysis, after that, the image was enhanced by Fourier transform and Color stretch.All of this means improved the precision of interpretation and the visual effection of remote sensing image.(2) The space distribution of all types of land cover in the study area assume to be a certain characteristic after analysin. The city, rural residential area, formland and water and wet land mainly distribute in the altitude of 1660m-2060m, the mining lease, coniferous forest, theropencedrymion and broad-leaved forest trend to distribute in the altitude of 1860m-2460m, the grass land, bushwood land, bare land and sparse vegetation land concentrade in the altitude of 1860m-2260m. All types of land cover prefer to distributing in the slope below 5° and the rate all above 40% in this scope, but when the slope exceeds 5°, the area of all types of land cover decrease as the slope raise, however, the trend of decrease do not perform clearly in coniferous forest, theropencedrymion and broad-leaved forest. All types of land cover mainly distribute in the aspect between 0-90,135-180° and 225-270°, besides, they distribute rarely in other aspect.(3) We analysed land cover change from 1991 to 2014 though transition matrix, the result suggested that the area of mining lease, rural residential area, city increase quickly, the area of broad-leaved forest and theropencedrymion increase slowly, the area of grass land and formland decrease, water and wet land do not shows great change, besides, other types of land cover trends increase first and then decrease including coniferous forest, bare land and bushwood land.(4) The change roles of CA model was improved by the method of spatial analysis in GIS, the improvement was got after comprehensive analysis on altitude、slope、aspect、the distance from road and the character of land cover change.Through this effort, an efficient land cover forecast method emerged, which was proved to be suitable in Tanglang river basin. The maching degree between the land cover map predicted by CA-Markov model and interpreted land cover map in 2009 reaches to 94.18%, which prove that the approach can be used to accurate predict land cover in Tang lang rive basin. With this method, we forecasted the land cover in 2018 and 2027 in the study area. Compare the prognostic land cover map both in 2018 and 2027 to interpreted land cover map in 2014, mining lease, rural residential area, city and bare land trend to increase. Form land, grass land and forest land trend to decrease. Especially, water and wet land trend to increase quickly. |
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