Bayesian Statistical Inference On The Efficiency Of Stochastic Frontier Model For Chinese Economy

The empirical study on the difference of regional production efficiency and the influence of various factors on regional economy and production efficiency is conducive to exploring the root cause and degree of economic production inefficiency,improving the utilization rate of resources,and promoting the improvement of economic production quality and the coordinated development of regional economy.Respectively,this paper based on the stochastic frontier production model with variable efficiency and the stochastic frontier production model of time-varying coefficients,has inferred the unknown parameters of the model by unconventional methods--bayesian statistical method.In particular,the multi-level prior model is adopted to carry out the empirical study on the non-efficiency,and the GDP of provinces and cities in 2019 is predicted by the bayesian posterior inference method,at the same time,combined with Gibbs sampling algorithm to complete posterior inference.As a result,the following conclusions are drawn:1.Based on the extended stochastic frontier production model,the research was found that during the study period,China's economic growth at the scale of constant return stage,human capital,especially the quality of Labour is an important factor to drive economic growth.For different regions,the main factors to promote economic growth are different.Human capital can effectively promote the economic growth of the eastern and central regions,while the western regions mainly rely on capital to promote economic growth.In addition,environmental pollution has a negative effect on the economic growth of the central region.2.The time-varying stochastic frontier production model to further study found: Nationally,the stochastic production frontier changes with time,and the mean value of the output elasticity of capital and labor gradually tends to balance,while the sum of the two always stays around 1.1.For regions,with the passage of time,the output of capital to the economy in the western region gradually decreased,whereas the labor force gradually increased.Years of education per capita promoted economic output in the eastern region,but this effect gradually weakened.Environmental pollution has a significant negative effect on the economic production in the central and eastern regions,while its effect on the eastern regions gradually weakens.3.The overall production efficiency showed a gradually declining trend,and there were certain differences in the production efficiency among regions.The scale of higher education had a significant direct impact on the regional production efficiency,and the greatest influence on the eastern region.Finally,the GDP of one province and city for the three regions in 2019 are inferred,such as the mean,median and 95% maximum posterior confidence intervals,the results shows that the regional economic output gap remains large.According to the empirical research and analysis,this paper puts forward the following Suggestions for the regional economic production: at the current stage,the per capita education level and capital investment should be improved in the east,and the scale of higher education should be further expanded to improve the production efficiency;The central region needs to simultaneously raise the per capita education level and the labor force input,to promotes the economic growth;For the western region,should control pollution,increase capital investment and labor input,so as to improve the regional economic growth in a balanced way and further narrow the regional gap.