Impact Of Global Warming On Tropical Cyclone Tracks Over The Western North Pacific

In this paper,the impact of global warming on the tropical cyclone(TC)track in the northwest Pacific Ocean was studied by analyzing the numerical simulation results of the WRF model for ocean warming and different carbon emission scenarios.The results of ocean warming experiments show that,in the western North Pacific Ocean,the TC track experiences a systematic poleward shift with the increase of sea surface temperature(SST),and the TC potential destructive power decreases(increases)in the low(middle)latitudes,thus causing the TC potential disaster area to shift towards the pole.In addition,a new objective method to evaluate the performance of climate models on simulating TC tracks was proposed.This method takes into account the characteristics of both TC track density and TC track type,and can more objectively evaluate the ability of climate models on simulating TC activity characteristics.Downscaling simulation results of different carbon emission scenarios based on CAM5 model,which performances well on TC track simulation,show that,in the middle carbon emission scenario,TC track is similar with that under the current climate,however,in the high carbon emission scenario,TC track shows the trend to shift toward the equator.Therefore,the observed poleward shift of TC track is not attributed to the global warming.Aiming at this problem,a series of the high-resolution TC case simulation experiments were conducted using the WRF model by separately combining SST and large-scale circulation background field from different carbon emission scenarios.The results indicate that,under global warming,TC track will shift poleward with SST increasing,but shift equatorward with the changed atmospheric circulation caused by the global warming.