The Relationship Between Strong High-Level Warming And The Track And Intensity Of The Tropical Cyclone

Tropical cyclone is the low-pressure vortex with a warm core structure, the movement of the airflow is toward the center to convergent. As the principle of conservation of angular momentum, when the external air into the center of tropical cyclone, the flow in the center of tropical cyclone will be up, to divergence. Outflow of air would make the surrounding environment warm up, and form a new environmental field. The new environment field must exist a temperature to different from the before environment field, which is a strong warming zone. The strong warming zone can be used to direct whether the tropical cyclones will come and the axial changes and the morphological changes will direct the tropical cyclone will develop to which direction. Because the tropical cyclone is the low pressure with a warm core structure, its strength is much greater, the temperature is much higher. The heat released from the tropical cyclone is much more, which will have a greater impact on the surrounding environment. That is, the more heat releases from the tropical cyclone, the temperature of the surrounding air will be much higher. Therefore, we can accord to that to judge the change of the tropical cyclone's track and intensity.This paper take the 1480 real-time information of the 50 tropical cyclones as the research object which entered our country 48h alarm level and had impact on the eastern region of our country. By anglicizing the change of strong high-altitude warming area and axial changes in morphological of 300hPa temperature field with the help of the NCEP real-time information.The study found that once the shape of the strong warming and the axial of the zone changed, and then the path of tropical cyclones would also change within 3-12 hours. This article also discovery the relationship between changes of the field which in 300hPa height of temperature and changes in the intensity of tropical cyclones, what is that the intensity of tropical cyclones will be as the 300hPa temperature field of high-altitude temperatures up or down and to enhance or diminish.At last, this paper confirmed that the 300hPa temperature field of high-warming region morphological changes and the change in its axial direction can direct the path turning of tropical cyclones by analysis and testing confirmed the path of Chanchu, Bilis and Morakot. Through research the changes of Wipha, Khanun and Rananim in intensity which validated the change of the strength at 300hPa temperature field of high-altitude temperature could indicate the change in intensity of tropical cyclones. In conclusion, it provides a new approach to forecast the path of tropical and changes of the intensity.