Spatio-temporal Evolution And Interactive Relation Research On Water Resources-socioeconomic-ecosystem In Xinjiang

The relationship between man and nature continues to evolve with the development of production,but the relationship between water resources-socioeconomic-ecosystem is always close,and the goal of "human water harmony" is always important.Based on the perspective of social hydrology,the complex system of Water resources-socioeconomic-ecosystem is divided into three subsystems: water resources,socioeconomic and ecosystem.There is a complex mutual feedback relationship between the subsystems,and the mutual feedback relationship also changes with time.Therefore,it is necessary to find out the spatial and temporal evolution of each subsystem,to explore the mutual feedback relationship between each subsystem,and to find the driving mechanism for the evolution of the mutual feed relationship.In view of this,this paper uses traditional monitoring data combined with historical data and remote sensing data,starting from evolution characteristics of water resources-socioeconomic-ecosystem in Xinjiang,qualitatively analyzes the mutual feedback relationship between each subsystem,quantitatively calculates the correlation degree between each subsystem and influence mechanism,and discussed the evolution and driving mechanism of the mutual feedback relationship.The main research content and conclusions are as follows:(1)Research on the evolution characteristics of water resources-socioeconomic-ecosystem in Xinjiang.According to the understanding of complex systems,the water resources-socioeconomic-ecosystem is divided into three subsystems.Select subsystem elements from water resources,socioeconomic and ecosystem,and use historical data,monitoring data,and remote sensing data to study the spatial-temporal evolution of water resources-socioeconomic-ecosystem in Xinjiang.The results show that since 1950 s,Xinjiang's economic and social development has been rapid,the center of population and GDP has gradually shifted to the east,and the economic development rate of the east is higher than that of the west;precipitation has increased its weight in water resources,and the center of precipitation has shifted to the west.The trend is hovering at the border of Tacheng,Yili,and Bazhou;the rate of change in the ecological environment is gradually decreasing,while the development and construction activities are slowing down.(2)Qualitative analysis and quantitative research on the mutual feedback relationship of water resources-socioeconomic-ecosystem in Xinjiang.From the perspective of qualitative and quantitative,the mutual feedback relationship between two pairs and three subsystems is analyzed qualitatively.The principal components analysis,combined with Pearson correlation analysis and canonical correlation analysis(CCA)were used to calculate the correlation between different subsystems quantitatively;Then,based on the correlation analysis results,further regression analysis was conducted to discuss the quantitative relationship between each subsystems.The results indicate that Xinjiang's water resources-socioeconomic-ecosystem is highly correlated,and the coefficients are all greater than 0.8;Regression analysis shows that for the entire Xinjiang region,once the socioeconomic scores increase by 10%,the ecosystem score will reduce by 1.73%.However,the results of regression analysis between other subsystems are not significant;For different areas in Xinjiang province,the socioeconomic subsystems in most regions are significantly related to the ecosystem subsystems,also,the socioeconomic subsystems and water resources subsystems in a few regions are significant related.(3)The evolution law and driving mechanism of the mutual relationship of water resources-socioeconomic-ecosystem in Xinjiang.According to the relevant analysis results,the evolution rule of the mutual feedback relationship between Xinjiang's water resources-socioeconomic-ecosystem subsystem was analyzed in spatio-temporal way.With reference to the "pendulum" model,the driving mechanism affecting the evolution of the mutual feedback relationship is divided.The results show that the mutual feedback relationship is sequentially affected by natural factors,technological and political factors,economic and technological factors.