Research On Credit Risk Of Commercial Banks Based On Bayesian Decision Rule

In the society of economic globalization,the role of Banks is closely related to daily life.Banks have not only deposits and withdrawals,but also various financial services such as credit,fund and insurance.Credit business has gradually become the main business of commercial Banks,which is closely related to the growing needs of people.Among the young,most people start to use credit cards for consumption.Among the middle-aged,mortgage and car loans is a trend.Many countries or regions in the world have suffered banking crises and paid a heavy price for them,so the credit risk of commercial Banks has a great impact on the economies of all countries.In the process of credit,risk occurs everywhere.It may be the system of information collection,it may also be the human operation.Every link needs to be accurately controlled,so system improvement is urgent.In the process of making credit decisions,credit risk is a difficult problem we are faced with.How to reduce risk with reasonable compliance is an important research field.The common credit risk is obviously inseparable from operational risk,guarantee risk and moral risk.Furthermore,reasonable prediction of operational risk,guarantee risk and moral risk is the top priority of commercial Banks credit risk.Bayesian decision theory is applied to study the credit risk of commercial Banks in China,which provides support for commercial Banks to avoid credit risk decision.On the basis of bayesian decision rule,two-factor analysis,Lee-Carter model and two-component state space model were introduced to explore the development trend of credit risk.and Its convergence was tested by using trace chart and Gelman-Rubin statistics,so as to explore the credit risk of commercial Banks The main conclusion is that only when the amount of data is more than 10000 can the research and analysis results be more accurate.The LeeCarter model is helpful to analyze the real-time variation of risk,but considering the problems related to the time lending method,the Lee-Carter model is optimized by bayesian decision rules.After the bayesian method is optimized,the lee-carter model is in good agreement with the Chinese guarantee risk data,and accurate in-sample prediction is provided.Moral hazard needs to be strongly controlled,and the overall social quality needs to be strengthened.The increase of moral hazard gradually increases the probability of risk occurrence with the change of time.Effective use of the advantages of bayesian posterior distribution,combined with the decision rules will retain a certain degree of uncertainty,and the real results will have a higher degree of fitting,in the most intuitive way to carry out risk analysis,increase the credibility of the development trend of commercial bank credit risk.The information asymmetry in the process of credit between enterprises and commercial Banks should be reduced as much as possible.This paper studies the credit risk of commercial Banks in bayes decision rules,verifies the applicability of bayes decision rules in credit of commercial Banks' credit,and gives relevant policy and decision suggestions.