Research On Human Factors Of Metro Operation Accidents Based On HFACS Model And Grey System

In recent years,with the continuous improvement of the degree of urbanization in China,urban rail transit has also changed with each passing day,especially the development of subway.However,with the continuous expansion of operation scale,subway operation accidents become more and more frequent.According to reliable data,human factors are the first-class causes of frequent subway operation accidents.At present,there are relatively few researches on human factor analysis of subway operation accidents,and the multi-level human factor analysis model has not been established.Therefore,it is of great significance to establish the human factor analysis model of metro operation accidents and explore the human factor mechanism of metro operation accidents.This paper focuses on the systematic study of human error and accident prediction in subway operation accidents and gives the corresponding solutions.First of all,this paper introduces a typical fault analysis model human factor analysis and classification system(HFACS)model in the analysis of metro operation accidents.According to the statistical method of domestic metro operation accidents,the collected metro operation accidents are analyzed for human error.According to the existing HFACS research theory,the original HFACS model is improved so that it can be used in the research of metro operation accidents.The improved HFACS model is used to classify and count the types of metro operation accidents collected.The statistical data are calculated by the analysis method of combining chi square test and concession ratio analysis,and the relationship between adjacent levels of human factors is obtained.Through the analysis,13 causal chains of accidents are obtained.Secondly,the gray correlation analysis method is used to analyze the human factors influencing the system,calculate the correlation value,and sort the correlation value,in order to find out the influence degree of different human factors on the system in subway operation accidents.Finally,the paper selects the human factors which are closely related to the subway operation accidents,uses two models GM(1,1)and GM(1,n)in the grey prediction model and multiple linear regression model to simulate and analyze these factors respectively,and selects the optimal prediction method;forecasts the subway accident frequency caused by human factors in the future through the optimal prediction method,and gives the corresponding solutions.