Study On Risk Assessment And Early Warning System Of Glacial Debris Flow In Tianshan Area

With the rising global temperature and warming climate,glaciers are melting.This makes geological disasters in the glacier region more diverse and frequent.Scholars at home and abroad began to pay attention to the study of glacier debris flow and reveal the mechanism of glacier debris flow.In order to accurately and effectively prevent the glacier debris flow disaster,reduce the injury to the personnel and cause the property economic loss,this paper carries out the glacier debris flow risk assessment and early warning system research is of great significance.The paper is based on the western science and technology project of the highway science academy of the ministry of transport.The monitoring technology of slope stability deformation based on remote sensing is applied.Based on a large number of data and field geological survey,this paper conducts risk assessment,monitoring and early warning research on the geological disaster of glacier debris flow along tianshan highway from the perspective of glacier debris flow mechanism and practice.(1)Based on the geological data and related information of tianshan region,xinjiang,and the previous scientific research achievements of xinjiang tianshan region,this paper analyzes and summarizes the glacier debris flow in K636 tianshan region,xinjiang.This paper concludes the influencing factors of glacier debris flow from conception to occurrence,and reveals the mechanism of glacier debris flow initiation,the mechanism of most glacier debris flow and the characteristics of regional glacier debris flow.(2)According to the mechanism and influencing factors of glacier debris flow in tianshan region of xinjiang,this paper establishes an index system for evaluating glacier debris flow risk in tianshan region of xinjiang.The system reduces the influence of human factors.Based on the objectivity of the data,it analyzes the monitoring data of glacier debris flow,and determines the evaluation system that conforms to the region,which lays a foundation for the research of glacier debris flow early warning system.(3)Based on the risk assessment system of glacier debris flow,this paper establishes a glacier debris flow warning system by means of multiple means and modules.It combines four modules of monitoring,risk assessment,early warning and warning,and information release into an early warning system of glacier debris flow.According to different periods of glacier debris flow,different warning modes are adopted to improve the work efficiency.The Logistic regression model provided can be used to predict the occurrence of glacier debris flow,so as to improve the warning system and achieve the function of early warning.The research results of this paper have important practical significance for the management of regional glacier debris flow and disaster prevention and reduction.