Research On The Factors Affecting The Migration Of Gravity Center Of Chongqing Main City Based On Spatial Econometric Model

There are differences in the socio-economic development between different regions of the city,resulting in an imbalance in the distribution of spatial population.Understanding the external factors that cause this imbalance can better carry out urban population management,rational adjustment of population layout,and also provide good support for urban planning management and inter-regional investment.This paper,through a large number of literature studies,combined with qualitative and quantitative research methods,based on the studies focused on the relationship and methods of population migration and other centers of gravity done by previous scholars,taking the nine districts of Chongqing's main city as an example,estimating The panel data of the nine administrative districts in the years of 2006 to 2016,study the development and evolution of population in the main urban area of Chongqing,analyze the typical factors which could affect the population distribution in the temporal and spatial respects,and study The impact that the economic market indicators,the level of infrastructure construction facilities,and the level of real-estate development in different districts of the main city make on overall population gravity center's spatial migration direction.It focuses on quantifying impact of various indicators on population distribution,especially quantifying the impact of real estate development on the migration of population center of gravity.Based on research findings,it shows that the population density in the main urban area of Chongqing has long been a phenomenon of “northwest is higher than the southeast”,and the areas with the highest concentration are the Yuzhong District and Jiangbei District.During the 11 years of the study,the population center of Chongqing's main city migrates to the northeast as a whole,and the degree of movement to the north is higher than that of the east.The imbalance coefficient of population distribution in Chongqing's main city is gradually decreasing,that is,the population distribution of Chongqing's main city is gradually balanced with respect to the scope of Chongqing's main city.Combined with the change of the imbalance coefficient and the distribution of the center of gravity of the main city population,the population center of Chongqing's main city will continue to move north to the east in the future,and with the development of the regional economy,the population will gradually gather on the northeast-southwest line.The trajectory of the population's center of gravity is highly similar to the trajectory of the economic center of gravity.The movement direction of each center of gravity is analyzed according to the theory "decomposition of direction" in physics.It can be seen that in the east-west direction,the population's center of gravity trajectory and the total social fixed assets investment(TSI),real estate investment(houseI),and commercial housing prices The price trajectory of(price),total retail sales(saleT)and regional gross domestic product(GDP)are closely related;in the north and south,the population's center of gravity trajectory and commercial housing price(construction),construction investment(construction),The center of gravity of the regional gross domestic product(GDP)is closely related.Among the driving factors and forces,the four indicators of regional gross domestic product(GDP),total retail sales of social consumer goods(saleT),total retail sales of social consumer goods(saleT)and prices of commercial housing have shown a significant impact.The first three have significant traction on the population's center of gravity,and the price of commercial housing shows significant external thrust.According to the conclusions of this paper,the following suggestions are put forward: Make rational urban planning,by considering the development of the northeast regional focus future direction of urban planning,investment of one.Promote regional economic development,by upgrading and guiding the regional industrial structure in the direction of the northeast migration and introducing high-quality related enterprises.Improve infrastructure construction,by vigorously developing the urban infrastructure construction in northeast-southwest.do a good job of regulating the real estate market in Chongqing's main city.The reasonable distribution of population between the main urban areas of Chongqing can be done by controlling housing prices and other ways.