Predicting The Impact Of Climate Change On Potential Distribution Of Juglandaceae

Juglandaceae belongs to the family of Fagales,which is an important and economic tree specy in the world.It has important material,edible and medicinal values and there are 7 genera in China.There are 27 species,which respectively belong to the Engelhardia,Pterocarya,Juglans,Carya,Platycarya,Cyclocarya and Annamocarya.Juglandaceae is a Tertiary relict plant.At present,it is mainly distributed in low-lying valley areas and high mountain forests in the south of China.The family is also distributed in the north of China.With the development of the world,it is more important to study the relationship between the ecological distribution of Juglandaceae and climate change.We can fully understand the global extreme climate change,the utilization and protection of planting resources by studying the simulation of distribution area of Juglandaceae family.We regarded Juglandaceae as the research object.Firstly,we collected the distribution points of 27 plants.Secondly,we used Max Ent software to predict the present and future potential distribution areas of juglandaceae.We obtained the contribution rate and displacement important values of environmental variables of Juglandaceae.In the end,we analyzed each environmental variable by knife cutting method which was called Jacknife test.We specifically observed the effects of the above variables affecting the distribution of Juglandaceae on the most suitable distribution areas of Juglandaceae.The main results of this study are follows:1.The results showed bio18 had the greatest impact on Juglandaceae,which was tested by Jacknife test through statistical analysis of environmental variables of Juglandaceae.2.The results showed that the dominant climatic factors for the distribution of Platycarya: bio1,bio3,bio6,and bio8;The dominant climatic factors of Cyclocarya are bio9,bio3 and bio8;the dominant climatic factors for the distribution of Annamocarya are bio6,bio3 and bio8;In addition to 7 climatic factors,the other 12 variables affect the distribution of Engelhardia;there are 10 dominant climatic factors in Carya distribution;there are 10 main climatic factors that affect the distribution of Pterocarya and there are 11 major climatic factors that affect the distribution of Juglans.3.Using Arc GIS10.0 simulation tool to simulate the relationship between distribution of Juglandaceae and climatic factors.As can be observed,27 plants will have the largest geographical distribution area in the future compared with the current geographical distribution.At present,there is no distribution in some places,but there will distribute in the future.ROC curve evaluated the above simulation values above 0.9.It shows that the above simulation results have high credibility.The most suitable climate area predicted by Max Ent model is highly correlated with the location point.