| Out of environmental protection,energy conservation and economic benefits,China's electric power industry advocates replacing traditional power with clean renewable energy such as wind power.Encouraged by the policy,the scale of China's wind power industry has expanded rapidly in the past more than ten years.However,in recent years,there have been negative phenomena that hinder the standardized development of the wind power industry such as rushing to construct,massive wind power curtailment and increasing subsidy gap.One of the important reasons for the above phenomena is that in the past,the wind power industry adopted a fixed on-grid tariff mechanism to maintain investment attraction of the industry.The fixed on-grid tariff mechanism lacks market incentives and has strong dependency of power subsidy.Therefore it has a limited effect on promoting the standardization development of the wind power industry in the long run.Accordingly,in May 2018,the Energy Administration issued a policy proposing a competition mechanism of wind power on-grid tariff,Through the market adjustment mechanism,the Energy Administration hopes to curb the uneconomic behavior of blindly rushing construction to improve the imbalance between supply and demand in the wind power market,and to achieve the policy goal of reducing the on-grid tariff of wind power and slowing the expansion of the power subsidy gap by introducing market competition mechanism in the electricity market.Based on the Bayesian game,this paper studies the effect of competition mechanism of wind power on-grid tariff and the impact of related factors on the competition results.Firstly,based on the dismantling of the wind power industry structure according to the power trading process,this paper constructed a bidding game model of wind power manufacturers participating in the project declaration,and solved the quotation strategy that maximizes the profit of the manufacturer.Secondly,from the personal point of view of the manufacturer,Python is used to simulate the declaration behavior of the manufacturer.Under the bidding mechanism,the relevant factors affecting the manufacturer's decision of whether participating in the market competition or not and the quotation of the manufacturer were studied and bidding strategy of manufacturers at different cost levels were compared to analyse the characteristics of declaration behavior of individual power manufacturers.Thirdly,from the perspective of bidding results,the bidding result with multiple power manufacturers was simulated.Policy effects and issues that need to be avoided during policy implementation were discussed with reference of the fixed on-grid tariff mechanism.Finally,the relevant factors and their influences of competition results were studied to find feasible ideas for guiding an ideal price competition result.The research results show that the competition mechanism can help to reduce the on-grid price of wind power,accelerate the policy goal of achieving equal on-grid price,and at the same time significantly reduce the on-grid profit margin of power producers and compress the survival space of manufacturers with medium and high cost.In the process of implementing the competition mechanism,it is necessary to pay attention to protect high-cost wind power manufacturers' moderate survival space at early stage and avoid excessive drop in on-grid tariffs to avoid industry risks.The results of the wind power competition mechanism can be guided by limiting the number of participants,adjusting the increment score of the manufacturer's quotations,adjusting the manufacturer's confidence in factors expect the quoted price,and encouraging technological progress and experience accumulation to promote cost reduction.Generally speaking,this paper verified the effectiveness of the competition mechanism of wind power on-grid tariff and discussed the guiding thoughts of competition results to provide a theoretical reference for the development of wind power price mechanism. |
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