| Stock market is an important part of the financial market.The transfer,trading and circulation of stocks play an important role in economic development.The stock market in China is in a stage of rapid development.Influenced by speculation and other factors,the prices of many stocks fluctuate greatly,which is not beneficial for the healthy development of the stock market.So it is necessary to establish a stock value measurement model that is consistent with the characteristics of China's market.The existing stock value measurement models describe the impact of intrinsic value of enterprises on stock prices.Most of the macroscopic research is limited to qualitative level.And the macro and micro factors are not considered at the same time.Not only is the comprehensiveness not guaranteed,but it is also prone to problems such as lag.Therefore,this paper proposes the concept of the intrinsic value of stock trading,hoping to consider the macro and micro factors at the same time,and obtain the reasonable price of the stock in real time.This paper attempts to establish a stock trading intrinsic value model by means of multiple regression.There are great differences in growth and policy sensitivity among different sectors.Listed bank stocks account for about a quarter of the total market value of A shares,so the trend of the banking sector has a significant impact on the entire stock market.At the same time,the price-earnings ratio of bank stocks is low,which is more regular than other sectors.In order to make the model more accurate,this study chooses the stock of the banking sector to build the model.In order to make the model more precise,this study chooses the banking sector to build the model.Taking 16 bank stocks listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange,such as Bank of Beijing,Bank of China and so on,as the main object of analysis.After the correlation test,a total of 21 indicators in 7 aspects were selected in the micro aspect,Such as equity indicators,shareholder indicators,profitability,capital structure,risk indicators,growth capabilities and operational capabilities.The stock price index is selected to represent the macro factors into the model measurement category.The dimensionality of the data is reduced by principal component analysis and factor analysis.According to the data characteristics of this study,two modeling methods,fixed effect model and mixed OLS regression model were used.The model results are tested in both statistical and practical investments.The adjust-R2 of the fixed effect model and mixed OLS regression model are 99% and 90% respectively,which are very high in the field of financial regression.The F-test and t-test results show that the model and the indicators are significant.In the actual investment test,if the model is effective,the undervalued stock should have an upward trend,that is,the cumulative excess return is positive;the overvalued price should have a downward trend,that is,the accumulated excess return is negative.Most of the test samples meet the above rules,and the model is considered to have passed the actual test.Based on the previous research,this paper integrates both macro and micro factors into the measurement of stock price and defines it as the intrinsic value model of stock trading.Provide a reasonable basis for investor decision-making and securities market regulation. |
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