Quantitative Evaluation Model Of Collapse Susceptibility In Hetian County

The Hetian County is located in the southern part of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,on the southern edge of the Taklimakan Desert.Most of the mountainous areas of the region have complex geological environments.The southern part of the county belongs to the Kunlun Mountains,and the new tectonic movement is strong,and often suffers from earthquakes.Therefore,geological disasters occur frequently in the region,especially collapses.The Provincial roads 216 and 219 national highways collapsed most seriously.These disasters have threatened the lives and property of local people.The direct economic losses caused by the disasters have reached 10.495 million yuan.Considering the above,this paper selects the Hetian County as the research area,analyzes the geological environment conditions of Hetian County,and combines the field investigation and remote sensing supplementary investigation to study the development characteristics and distribution law of the collapse disaster in Hetian County,and elevation,aspect,slope,stratum lithology,vegetation cover,faults,water system,rainfall,earthquakes,roads,settlements,mines are selected as evaluation factors,and the evaluation model of collapse and susceptibility based on the GIS technology.Based on the ARCGIS platform,quantitative data analysis and integration methods are used to analyze data and decentralize states.In order to improve the accuracy of the data,quantitative evaluation of collapse and susceptibility is made to the necessary conditions and influencing conditions.Firstly,the evidence weight analysis method is used to calculate the correlation between each factor and the collapsed space.Then the quantitative evaluation of collapse susceptibility under necessary conditions and the quantitative evaluation of the Risk of Collapse under Influencing Conditions were carried out by weighted logistic regression.Finally,The method of superposition is used to synthesize the quantitative evaluation results of collapse susceptibility under necessary conditions and the quantitative evaluation results of collapse susceptibility under influence conditions,and the comprehensive quantitative evaluation results of collapse susceptibility are obtained.On this basis,The collapse susceptibility of Hetian County is divided into four areas:high-susceptibility area,medium-susceptibility area,low-susceptibility area and non-susceptibility area.Risk is divided into three zones: low-risk zone,medium-risk zone and high-risk zone.