| As a national key development strategy,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development plays an important role in resolving Beijing’s non-capital functions,building a world-class urban agglomeration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and providing demonstrations for regional coordinated development.As a basic industry for economic development,transportation is an important driving force to strengthen inter-regional cooperation,promote industrial structure optimization and economic development.Under this background,through the simulation analysis of the promotion degree of highway,railway,air and water transportation to economic growth,explore the impact of transportation on regional economic development to make reference for the direction and scale of transportation infrastructure investment.This paper comprehensively analyzes the development status of transportation,economy and industrial structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and uses the coupling coordination degree model to further quantitatively analyze the coordination degree of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei transportation and economic development.The results show that the regional transportation system of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is developing continuously,and the coupling degree with the economy is constantly optimized,but it still does not reach the ideal state;overall,the transportation lags behind the economic development.Based on the above research,the system dynamics model is constructed.Firstly,the system is divided into Beijing subsystem,Tianjin subsystem and Hebei subsystem according to the location structure,and transportation subsystem,economic subsystem and industrial structure subsystem according to functional structure.Secondly,it analyzes the causal feedback relationship between each system and each element,and uses Vensim software to draw the system causal loop diagram and stock flow graph,and determine the equation between the elements.Finally,Use the actual data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2006 to 2015 to verify the feasibility of the model.By adjusting the parameters,the dynamic evolution trend of economic development and industrial structure adjustment under different simulation scenarios is simulated.After analysis,the following conclusions are drawn: First,increasing investment in transport infrastructure has a significant effect on economic growth.Different regions and transportation infrastructure construction have different effects on economic promotion.Second,in Beijing,the direct increase in railway investment has the most significant effect on economic promotion.In Tianjin,increasing the overall investment in transportation infrastructure is most conducive to promoting economic growth and industrial structure optimization and upgrading.In Hebei,increasing investment in ports and railways has an obvious effect on economic development. |
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