The Temporal And Spatial Variability Of Abrupt Temperature Change And Warming Hiatus In Northern China And Its Response To The Change Of Influencing Factors

In the past 100 years,the adverse effects of climate change on the natural ecology and the sustainable development of human society have intensified.Among them,temperature abrupt change and warming hiatus have played a major role.It is an important part of climate change research,but the characteristics of time and space changes.The laws,causes and mechanisms are not clear.The northern part of China has a wide geographical range and many types of climate.It is representative of the response to global climate change,revealing the temporal and spatial variability of temperature abrupt change and warming hiatus in northern China and its response to changes in impact factors.It is meaningful to have an in-depth understanding of climate change and its impact on the ecological environment.Based on the annual(seasonal)average minimum temperature,average temperature and average maximum temperature data of 357 meteorological stations in northern China and its surrounding areas,Mann-Kendall test,climate tendency rate method and central clustering method were used to analyze the spatial-temporal variability of the eigenvalues of the three types of the annual and seasonal temperature abrupt changes and the hiatus in the northern China from 1951 to 2014;using global greenhouse gas forcing(AGG),Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO),AMO,MEI,and annual(monthly)data of atmospheric pressure,wind speed,and relative humidity corresponding to weather data using meteorological sites,revealing the northern China from 1951 to 2016.The main relationship between the temperature-like interannual,seasonal temperature abrupt change and the hiatus of warming on its impact factors,the main conclusions are as follows:1?The temperature abrupt year of the three types of annual and seasonal temperatures decreased with the decrease of latitude.The abrupt year is later in the order of average minimum temperature,average temperature,and average maximum temperature(1979?1999,1975?2002,1978?2005);the northeast China(1970?1980s)mutations were earlier than the northwest and north China(1990s after).In spring,summer and winter,the average minimum temperature is the earliest(1972?1999,1987?1999,1971?2000),the average temperature is second,and the average maximum temperature is the latest(1975?2008,1994?2008,1972?2006),the autumn is different;the three types of temperature are late in winter(1981?1990),spring,autumn and summer(1994?2008).2?After the mutation,the annual three types of temperature will be slowed down from the northwestern eastern region to other directions;the average minimum temperature,the average maximum temperature,and the average temperature be slowed down in turn;the northwest region will heat up the fastest(0.06-0.12?/10a)The intensity of the three types of temperature fluctuations is weakened in turn.Summer and autumn average maximum temperature heating rate>average temperature>average minimum temperature,spring and winter average maximum temperature>average minimum temperature>average temperature;winter temperature heating rate>autumn?spring>summer.The temperature fluctuations of the three types of spring and autumn are weakened in turn,and in winter,the average minimum temperature in summer is<the average maximum temperature<the average temperature.The annual and third-class temperature increases are the highest in the average,and the average temperature is second.3?The annual and seasonal temperature hiatus are concentrated in 1998 and 2007 and around.The interannual average minimum temperature(1994-2007),average temperature,and average maximum temperature(1998-2010)stagnate in turn;the overall direction of the Yellow River is later in other directions.In spring and summer,the three types of temperature gradually became late,and the autumn and winter were opposite.The three types of temperature were later in the order of winter(1995?2008),autumn,summer and spring(1998?2010).The annual and seasonal temperatures of the three types of temperature change to the warming hiatus cycle are shortened with the latitude,and the seasonal cycle is shortened by the average minimum temperature(9?18a),the average temperature and the average maximum temperature(5?12a).4?The warming pauses,the interannual temperature of the three types of temperatures are slowed down from the northwestern eastern region to other directions;the average minimum temperature(-0.19?-0.07?/10a),the average maximum temperature,and the average temperature decrease in turn;the northeast region cools down.The fastest(-0.19?-0.07?/10a).In spring,summer and winter,the average maximum temperature is the fastest,the average minimum temperature is second,and the autumn is different.The average minimum temperature and average temperature cooling rate are both winter>spring>autumn>summer;spring and autumn three types of wave strength decrease in turn.The opposite is true in winter.In summer,autumn and winter,the average minimum temperature increase>the average temperature>the average maximum temperature;the third type temperature increase is spring(1.2?2.7?)>winter>autumn>summer(0?1.5?).5?On the whole,the annual and seasonal temperature responses of the three types of temperature are consistent.From the end of 1970s to 1990s,with the continuous increase of AGG,CO2,AMO and solar radiation,PDO in the positive phase or continuous rise,MEI mutation,wind speed,atmospheric pressure,relative humidity continued to decline/rise and the subsequent trend changes,temperature changes;1990s Later,as the AMO rises,the PDO falls or is in the negative phase,the MEI and solar radiation decline,the wind speed,the atmospheric pressure,the relative humidity continues to fall/rise and the subsequent trend changes,the temperature becomes warm and stagnant.For example,after 1970s,when the AMO rapid rise lasted for 3?29a,the wind speed continued to rise by 4?24a,and the propensity rate reached 0.12?1.21m/(s·10a),the interannual average minimum temperature suddenly changed.6?The sensitivity of the annual and seasonal temperatures to the changes of the three types of impact factors are all the average minimum temperature>average temperature>average maximum temperature.The annual and seasonal temperature changes in each zone are most sensitive to the response of the first type of impact factor change>the second type of impact factor>the third type of impact factor.The sensitivity of temperature to various influencing factors is different between different seasons.For example,the sensitivity of 3 types of temperature in spring to AGG and CO2>summer>autumn>winter,the sensitivity of winter temperature to PDO and MEI>spring>Autumn>Summer.